Monday, August 20, 2012

TS TEMBIN [IGME] - Update #002


for Monday, 20 August 2012 [1:28 AM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sunday August 19, 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on TEMBIN (IGME).


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 70 km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


12:00 MN PhT (16:00 GMT) Mon 20 August 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)
TEMBIN (IGME) strengthened into a Tropical Storm as it barely moves off the North Philippine Sea...still gaining intensity. Outer rainbands continues to spread across the east coast of Cagayan and Isabela.

Meanwhile, since the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) remains weak, the pull of TD TEMBIN on this seasonal wind system is not much. However, isolated to scattered rains and thunderstorms can still be expected across much of Luzon including Metro Manila.

Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon and Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of TEMBIN (IGME).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 12:00 MN PhT Mon August 20, 2012
Location of Center: 17.5º N Lat 125.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 282 km (ENE) away from Palanan, Isabela
Distance 2: 316 km (ESE) away from Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 3: 350 km (E) away from Tuguegarao City
Distance 4: 341 km (ENE) away from Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 5: 363 km (ESE) away from Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 6: 420 km (SE) away from Calayan Island
Distance 7: 388 km (N) closer to Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 8: 466 km (SE) away from Basco, Batanes
Distance 9: 475 km (NNE) away from Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 10: 527 km (NE) away from Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Present Movement: ESE @ 04 kph (02 kts)
Towards: North Philippine Sea
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 775 km (420 nm) [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash)


TEMBIN (IGME) is expected to move very slowly northward during the next 12 to 24 hours...and will turn NNW to NW-ward through the next 36 to 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of TEMBIN will not directly affect any part of the Philippines as it will remain over the open sea through Wednesday...with a path towards Eastern Taiwan.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased near 85 km/hr (45 knots) with higher gusts. Continued increase in strength will be expected during the next few days...and KAI-TAK will become a Category 1 Typhoon on Monday.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 75 kilometers (40 nautical miles) from the center. KAI-TAK is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 775 kilometers (420 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

TUESDAY MIDNIGHT: Strengthens into a Typhoon as it starts to turn Northward while off the North Philippine Sea...389 km East of Calayan Island [12MN AUG 21: 19.2N 125.2E @ 120kph].
WEDNESDAY MIDNIGHT: Still gaining strength as it moves NW-ward...about 284 km ENE of Basco, Batanes [12MN AUG 22: 21.3N 124.5E @ 140kph].
THURSDAY MIDNIGHT: Approaching the east coast of Taiwan...turns WNW...about 203 km SE of Hualien City, Taiwan [12MN AUG 23: 22.7N 123.0E @ 150kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-118 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - the southwestern bands are affecting & spreading across the provinces of Cagayan and Isabela. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: WEAK >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with some isolated to scattered showers, rains or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: REST OF LUZON paerticularly the WESTERN SECTIONS including METRO MANILA. Calm & light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for TS TEMBIN (IGME)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1512.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Tembin's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop








>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TD TEMBIN (IGME)...go visit our website @:


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