Saturday, August 04, 2012

TD HAIKUI [12W] - Update #001


for Saturday, 04 August 2012 [8:00 AM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday August 04, 2012):

(1) Now issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on HAIKUI (12W) located outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR); (2) The Track No. 2 (Old GIF StormTrack) will only be issued for Tropical Cyclones within the PAR.


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): --- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 90 km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Sat 04 August 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)
The large disturbance north of Guam or over the Western Pacific Ocean has strengthened yesterday into Tropical Depression HAIKUI (12W). HAIKUI is a Chinese word for a kind of submarine animal whose appearance looks like a sunflower. During the past 12 hours, this depression was heading towards the Southern Islands of Japan.

This depression, although will not directly affect the Philippines, is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across country particulartly the western sections. Breezy to windy conditions & mostly cloudy conditions w/ occasionally passing rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected along the abovementioned areas. The seas along the coastal areas facing the West, East and North Philippine Seas will be moderate to rough.

Residents and visitors along the Southern Islands of Japan, Eastern and Southeastern China should closely monitor the progress of Haikui (12W).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sat August 04, 2012
Location of Center: 25.5� N Lat 136.3� E Lon
Distance 1: 509 km (NNW) away from Iwo To
Distance 2: 856 km (ESE) closer to Okinawa, Japan
Distance 3: 751 km (SE) closer to Amami Is.
Distance 4: 1564 km (ENE) away from Batanes, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 24 kph (13 kts)
Towards: Okinawa-Ryukyus Area
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 230 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Size (in Diameter): 935 km (505 nm) [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF


HAIKUI (12W) is expected to continue moving WNW throughout the forecast period and will slow down. On the forecast track, the core of HAIKUI will pass in between the islands of Okinawa and Amami around Sunday afternoon or evening.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 55 km/hr (30 knots) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours...and the Depression is expected to become a Tropical Storm (TS) later today or Sunday.

SAOLA is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 935 kilometers (505 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SUNDAY MORNING: Becomes a TS as it approaches Okinawa and Amami Islands in the Ryukyus [5AM AUG 05: 27.0N 130.8E @ 75kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Almost a Typhoon as it slows down while moving away from Okinawa and Amami Islands [5AM AUG 06: 28.0N 128.1E @ 110kph].
TUESDAY MORNING: Becomes a Typhoon while entering the East China Sea...heading slowly towards Eastern China [5AM AUG 07: 28.5N 126.7E @ 140kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific Ocean)...not yet affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific Ocean)...not yet affecting any land areas...but expected to reach the Southern Islands of Japan on Sunday. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 230 mm (high) along areas near the center of Haikui (12W) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with isolated occasional showers, rains or thunderstorms w/ squalls will be expected along the following affected areas: PHILIPPINES particularly the Western Sections (except Mindanao). Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 55 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TD HAIKUI (12W)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1212.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Saola's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop







>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TD HAIKUI (12W)...go visit our website @:


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