Monday, August 27, 2012

Typhoon BOLAVEN [JULIAN] - Update #005


for Monday, 27 August 2012 [4:45 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday August 27, 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, and email updates (except 12 Midnight) on BOLAVEN (JULIAN).


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): --- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 170 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Mon 27 August 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warnings/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)
Typhoon BOLAVEN (JULIAN) continues to lose strength as it passes over cooler sea-surface temperatures...still on its way towards the Korean Peninsula.

Residents and visitors along the Korean Peninsula should closely monitor the progress of BOLAVEN (JULIAN).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Mon August 27, 2012
Location of Eye: 30.7º N Lat 125.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 300 km (SSW) closer to Jeju Island
Distance 2: 423 km (ESE) closer to Shanghai, China
Distance 3: 458 km (WSW) away from Kagoshima, Japan
Distance 4: 573 km (SW) closer to Busan, S.Korea
Distance 5: 775 km (SSW) closer to Seoul, S.Korea
Distance 6: 934 km (S) closer to Pyongyang, N.Korea
Distance 7: 788 km (SE) closer to Qingdao, China
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 140 kph (75 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 165 kph (90 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 28 kph (15 kts)
Towards: Korean Peninsula
CPA [ETA] to Jeju Island: Tuesday Morning [3-4AM JST]
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 230 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 967 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 1205 km (650 nm) [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 46 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
Latest StormTracks (for Public):


BOLAVEN (JULIAN) is expected to move rapidly Northward during the next 24 hours...recurving to the NNE to NE thru 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of BOLAVEN will move across the East China and into the Yellow Sea today thru Tuesday afternoon - passing close to the west of Jeju Island early Tuesday morning. By late Tuesday afternoon, Bolaven will make landfall over North Korea, passing very close to Pyongyang and cross the communist nation thru Wednesday early morning...and will be off Northeastern China by Wednesday afternoon.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 140 km/hr (75 knots) with higher gusts. A decrease in strength will continue throughout the forecast period...and BOLAVEN will be downgraded into a Tropical Storm (TS) before it makes landfall over North Korea on Tuesday afternoon.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 100 kilometers (55 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 315 kilometers (170 nautical miles). BOLAVEN is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1205 kilometers (650 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens to a Tropical Storm as it prepares to make landfall over North Korea [5PM AUG 28: 37.7N 125.5E @ 110kph].
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Losing tropical characteristics...moving inland across NE China...about 350 km NW of Vladivostok, Eastern Russia [5PM AUG 29: 46.0N 129.8E @ 75kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (East China Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
DECAYING EYEWALL - over water (East China Sea). Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Jeju Island. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Okinawa-Ryukyu-Amami Islands, Kyushu (Japan), Coastal Areas of Eastern China and the Korean Peninsula. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 230 mm (high) along areas near the center of Bolaven (Julian) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Jeju Island and the Korean Peninsula. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Kyushu, Eastern China, Ryukyus and Amami Islands
(click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TY BOLAVEN (JULIAN)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1612.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 2 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Bolaven's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop







>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TY BOLAVEN (JULIAN)...go visit our website @:


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