Monday, August 06, 2012

TS HAIKUI [12W] - Update #006


for Monday, 06 August 2012 [8:01 AM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sunday August 05, 2012):

(1) Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on HAIKUI (12W) located outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR); (2) The Track No. 2 (Old GIF StormTrack) will only be issued for Tropical Cyclones within the PAR.


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): --- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 115 km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Mon 06 August 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)
Tropical Storm HAIKUI (12W) continues to move slowly away from Okinawa...heading towards Southeastern China.

This storm, although will not directly affect the Philippines, it will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across the country particularly the western sections. Breezy to windy conditions & mostly cloudy conditions w/ occasionally passing rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected along the abovementioned areas. The seas along the coastal areas facing the West, East and North Philippine Seas will be moderate to rough.

Residents and visitors along Eastern and Southeastern China should closely monitor the progress of Haikui (12W).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Mon August 06, 2012
Location of Center: 27.2� N Lat 126.3� E Lon
Distance 1: 168 km (WNW) away from Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 329 km (WSW) away from Amami, Japan
Distance 3: 529 km (ENE) closer to Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 4: 549 km (ESE) closer to Wenzhou, China
Distance 5: 557 km (SE) closer to Ningbo, China
Distance 6: 651 km (SE) closer to Shanghai, China
Distance 7: 850 km (NNE) away from Batanes, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: Southeastern China
Landfall [ETA] to Zhejiang Province: Wed Early AM [1-3AM HKT]
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 205 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 870 km (470 nm) [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 26 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF


HAIKUI (12W) is expected to move Westward during the next 24 hours...turning WNW to NW-ward throughout the forecast period. Its general motion is forecast to slow down during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the core of HAIKUI will be moving into the East China Sea today until Tuesday...and will make landfall over Zhejiang Province in Southeastern China by early Wednesday morning.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 100 km/hr (55 knots) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...and HAIKUI could become a Typhoon on Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 160 kilometers (85 nautical miles) from the center. HAIKUI is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 870 kilometers (470 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

TUESDAY MORNING: Becomes a typhoon as it moves closer to Southeastern China...about 277 km ESE of Wenzhou City, China [5AM AUG 07: 27.3N 123.4E @ 120kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Dissipating overland as it makes landfall over Zhejiang Province in Southeastern China...just a Tropical Storm...about 91 km NNE of Wenzhou City [5AM AUG 08: 28.8N 120.9E @ 110kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Continues to dissipate over Zhejiang Province as it moves NW...about 183 km West of Ningbo City, China [5AM AUG 09: 29.9N 119.6E @ 85kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

INNER RAINBANDS - over water (East China Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands, Northern Taiwan and the eastern shores of Eastern and Southeastern China. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 205 mm (high) along areas near the center of Haikui (12W) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Eastern & SE China, Northern Taiwan, Okinawa, Amami and the Rest of the Ryukyu Islands. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Western Japan, Extreme Northern Luzon, and South Korea.
(click here to know more about Storm Surge).


Meanwhile, Tropical Storm 13W (Unnamed) has accelerated poleward while to the NW of Wake Island in the far Western Pacific Ocean...remains not a threat to land. Its center was located about 832 km NNW of Wake Island (25.7N 162.4E)...with maximum sustained winds of 65 kph and was moving North @ 22 kph. To view the latest information on this storm kindly click and visit this link.

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with isolated occasional showers, rains or thunderstorms w/ squalls will be expected along the following affected areas: PHILIPPINES particularly the Western Sections (except Mindanao). Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 55 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS HAIKUI (12W)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1212.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 4 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Haikui's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop







>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TS HAIKUI (12W)...go visit our website @:


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