Friday, August 03, 2012

TS SAOLA [GENER] - Final Update


for Friday, 03 August 2012 [2:00 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday August 03, 2012):

(1) Ending the 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on SAOLA (GENER) as the system dissipates; (2) The Track No. 2 (Old GIF StormTrack) will only be issued for Tropical Cyclones within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): --- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Fri 03 August 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)
Tropical Storm SAOLA (GENER) rapidly dissipating over Southeastern China, as the system made landfall over Fujian Province this morning. Tropical Storm Conditions will still continue across Fujian Province.

This storm will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Metro Manila, Southern Tagalog Provinces, Western Luzon, Mindoro, and Western Visayas today. Breezy to windy conditions & mostly cloudy conditions w/ occasionally passing rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected along the abovementioned areas, especially along the western coast. The seas along the coastal areas facing the West, East and North Philippine Seas will be rough and dangerous.

Meanwhile, the new Tropical Depression, named HAIKUI (12W) continues to strengthen while over the Western Pacific Ocean, hundreds of kilometers to the north of Guam. A new page will be created on this new system later today.

*This is the last and final update on Saola (Gener).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Fri August 03 2012
Location of Center: 27.3� N Lat 118.8� E Lon
Distance 1: 142 km (NNW) away from Fuzhou, China
Distance 2: 203 km (WSW) away from Wenzhou, China
Distance 3: 379 km (NW) away from Taipei, Taiwan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 26 kph (14 kts)
Towards: Central China
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 200 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 1,000 km (540 nm) [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): -- ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF


SAOLA (GENER) is expected to move WNW for the next 12 to 24 hours. On the forecast track, the core of SAOLA will continue to move further across Central China through Saturday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. Rapid dissipation is likely within the next 12 to 24 hours as SAOLA moves inland across Southeastern China. The system will be downgraded into a Depression later today...dissipating by Saturday.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 85 kilometers (45 nautical miles) from the center. SAOLA is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,000 kilometers (540 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 1-day forecast outlook on this system:

SATURDAY MORNING: Just an area of low pressure as it moves inland across Central China...about 535 km WNW of Wenzhou City [11AM AUG 04: 28.8N 115.3E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Fujian Province. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the rest of Southeastern China. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (high) along areas near the center of Saola (Gener) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).


Typhoon DAMREY (11W) has made landfall over Eastern China and is just a Tropcial Storm, rapidly dissipating overland. Its center was located about 334 km NNW of Shanghai, China (35.3N 118.8E)...with maximum sustained winds of 100 kph and was moving WNW @ 17 kph. To view the latest information on this storm kindly click this link.

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Sunny to cloudy skies with isolated occasional showers, rains or thunderstorms w/ squalls will be expected along the following affected areas: METRO MANILA, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES, WESTERN LUZON, MINDORO, BICOL REGION, & WESTERN VISAYAS. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 60 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS SAOLA (GENER)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1012.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 1 Day Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Saola's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop






>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TY SAOLA (GENER)...go visit our website @:


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