Monday, August 27, 2012

Typhoon BOLAVEN [JULIAN] - Update #003


for Monday, 27 August 2012 [8:16 AM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday August 27, 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, and email updates (except 12 Midnight) on BOLAVEN (JULIAN).


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): --- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 170 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 180 km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Mon 27 August 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)
Typhoon BOLAVEN (JULIAN) weakens to Category 3 as it moves away from Okinawa across the East China Sea. Its EYE has passed over the island early last night approx 7:00 PM Manila Time.

Residents and visitors along the Korean Peninsula should closely monitor the progress of BOLAVEN (JULIAN).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sun August 26, 2012
Location of Eye: 28.0º N Lat 127.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 185 km (NNW) away from Okinawa City
Distance 2: 195 km (NNW) away from Kadena Airbase, Okinawa
Distance 3: 212 km (ENE) away from Naha Airport, Okinawa
Distance 4: 238 km (W) away from Amami Island
Distance 5: 524 km (SW) closer to Kagoshima, Japan
Distance 6: 602 km (S) closer to Jeju Island
Distance 7: 814 km (SSW) closer to Busan, S.Korea
Distance 8: 1067 km (S) closer to Seoul, S.Korea
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 195 kph (105 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 240 kph (130 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Towards: South Korea
CPA [ETA] to Jeju Island: Tuesday Morning [3-4AM JST]
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 320 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 952 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 3
Size (in Diameter): 1000 km (540 nm) [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 49 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 9-12 ft [2.7-3.9 m]
Latest StormTracks (for Public):


BOLAVEN (JULIAN) is expected to continue moving NNW to Northward during the next 24 to 36 hours...turning and recurving to the NNE during the next 48 to 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of BOLAVEN will move across the East China and into the Yellow Sea starting today thru Tuesday afternoon - passing close to the west of Jeju Island early Tuesday morning. By Tuesday afternoon, Bolaven will make landfall over North Korea and cross the communist nation Tuesday evening...and will be off Siberia, Russia by early Thursday morning.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 195 km/hr (105 knots) with higher gusts. A decrease in strength will be expected throughout the forecast period...and BOLAVEN will be downgraded into a Tropical Storm (TS) after making landfall over North Korea on Tuesday afternoon.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 130 kilometers (70 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 425 kilometers (230 nautical miles). BOLAVEN is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1295 kilometers (700 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

TUESDAY MORNING: Weakens to Category 2 while accelerating rapidly Northward into the Yellow Sea...passing close to the west of Jeju Island [5AM AUG 28: 32.1N 125.6E @ 175kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: In the vicinity of the North Korean-Chinese Border...about 336 km NNE of Pyongyang, North Korea [5AM AUG 29: 41.9N 126.9E @ 150kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Just a Tropical Depression...moving rapidly inland across Eastern Russia...770 km NNE of Vladivostok, Russia [5AM AUG 30: 50.0N 132.8E @ 65kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

ROUND EYE - over water (East China Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (East China Sea). Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Okinawa, Ryukyu and Amami Islands. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the Jeju Island and Kyushu (Japan). Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 320 mm (high) along areas near the center of Bolaven (Julian) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 9-12 ft [2.7-3.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Okinawa & Jeju Islands. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Kyushu, Ryukyus and Amami Islands
(click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TY BOLAVEN (JULIAN)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1612.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Bolaven's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop







>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TY BOLAVEN (JULIAN)...go visit our website @:


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