Tuesday, August 28, 2012

TS BOLAVEN [JULIAN] - Update #006


for Tuesday, 28 August 2012 [10:53 AM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday August 27, 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, and email updates (except 12 Midnight) on BOLAVEN (JULIAN).


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): --- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 145 km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Tue 28 August 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warnings/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)
BOLAVEN (JULIAN) no longer a Typhoon as it continues to move across the cooler sea-surface temperatures of the Yellow Sea...landfall over North Korea expected early this evening.

Residents and visitors along the Korean Peninsula should closely monitor the progress of BOLAVEN (JULIAN).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Tue August 28, 2012
Location of Center: 35.8º N Lat 124.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 280 km (SW) closer to Seoul, S.Korea
Distance 2: 314 km (NW) away from Jeju Island
Distance 3: 365 km (SSW) closer to Pyongyang, N.Korea
Distance 4: 415 km (E) away from Qingdao, China
Distance 5: 388 km (WNW) away from Busan, S.Korea
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 33 kph (18 kts)
Towards: North Korea
CPA [ETA] to North Korea: Tuesday Evening [6PM JST]
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 200 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 1205 km (650 nm) [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 38 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Latest StormTracks (for Public): Wunderground.com


BOLAVEN (JULIAN) is expected to move rapidly Northward to NNE-ward during the next 24 to 36 hours. On the forecast track, the core of BOLAVEN will make landfall over North Korea tonight and traverse the communist nation. It will move inland across Northeastern China through Wednesday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 100 km/hr (55 knots) with higher gusts. A decrease in strength will continue throughout the forecast period...and BOLAVEN will be downgraded into a Tropical Depression (TD) and become Extratropical on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 315 kilometers (170 nautical miles). BOLAVEN is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1205 kilometers (650 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 1-day forecast outlook on this system:

WEDNESDAY MORNING: Dissipating over land as it traverses Northeastern China [5PM AUG 28: 44.1N 128.1E @ 65kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - over water (Yellow Sea). Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ Near-Typhoon Force Winds (95-140 kph) will be expected along the CDO (click here to know more about CDO).-->
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the Korean Peninsula incl. Jeju Island. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Eastern China and Western Japan. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (high) along areas near the center of Bolaven (Julian) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Jeju Island and the Korean Peninsula. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Kyushu, Eastern China, Ryukyus and Amami Islands
(click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS BOLAVEN (JULIAN)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1612.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 1.5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Bolaven's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop









>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:


For the complete details on TS BOLAVEN (JULIAN)...go visit our website @:


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