Bushman's Typhoon Blog: August 2012

Thursday, August 30, 2012

TS TEMBIN [IGME] - Final Update

for Thursday, 30 August 2012 [10:57 AM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday August 30, 2012):

Ending the 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on TEMBIN (IGME).

TEMBIN MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): --- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM TEMBIN (IGME) UPDATE NUMBER 31 **FINAL**
11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Thu 30 August 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warnings/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

Tropical Storm TEMBIN (IGME) has started to cross South Korea after it made landfall this morning...weakens and accelerated rapidly...becoming Extratropical.

*This is the last and final update on Tembin (Igme).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Thu August 30, 2012
Location of Center: 35.5º N Lat 127.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 230 km (NNE) away from Jeju Island
Distance 2: 175 km (WNW) away from Busan, S.Korea
Distance 3: 234 km (S) closer to Seoul, S.Korea
Distance 4: 408 km (SSE) away from Pyongyang, N.Korea
Distance 5: 936 km (SW) of Vladivostok, Russia
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: NNE @ 42 kph (23 kts)
Towards: South Korea
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 150 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 480 km (260 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): -- ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF (for Philippines only)

1-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

TEMBIN (IGME) is expected to continue moving NNE to NE-ward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of TEMBIN will continue to traverse the rugged terrain of South Korea this afternoon and move into the Sea of Japan tonight. It will be over Eastern Russia by Friday morning.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. A decrease in its strength will continue during the next 24 hours as TEMBIN moves across the Sea of Japan.

The following is the summary of the 1-day forecast outlook on this system:

FRIDAY MORNING: Just an area of low pressure accelerating over Eastern Russia [11AM AUG 31: 44.3N 133.3E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across South Korea. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across North Korea and Western Kyushu. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 150 mm (high) along areas near the center of Tembin (Igme) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS TEMBIN (IGME)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1512.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 1 Day Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Tembin's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

CURRENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING MAP:

_____________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS TEMBIN (IGME)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

__________________________________________________________________________________________

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TS TEMBIN [IGME] - Update #030

for Thursday, 30 August 2012 [8:49 AM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday August 20, 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on TEMBIN (IGME).

TEMBIN MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): --- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM TEMBIN (IGME) UPDATE NUMBER 30
5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Thu 30 August 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warnings/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

Tropical Storm TEMBIN (IGME) accelerating rapidly NNE across the East China Sea...now passing very close to Jeju Island...expected to make landfall over South Korea this morning.

Residents and visitors along the Korean Peninsula should closely monitor the progress of TEMBIN (IGME).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Thu August 30, 2012
Location of Center: 33.4º N Lat 125.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 45 km (W) closer to Jeju Island
Distance 2: 357 km (WSW) closer to Busan, S.Korea
Distance 3: 482 km (SSW) closer to Seoul, S.Korea
Distance 4: 623 km (S) closer to Pyongyang, N.Korea
Distance 5: 354 km (W) of Sasebo, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Present Movement: NNE @ 37 kph (20 kts)
Towards: South Korea
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 150 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 480 km (260 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 22 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF (for Philippines only)

1-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

TEMBIN (IGME) is expected to move NNE to NE-ward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of TEMBIN will make landfall over South Korea this morning and move across the country through the afternoon and evening. By Friday morning, TEMBIN will be moving across the Sea of Japan as it approaches Vladivostok, Russia.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 85 km/hr (45 knots) with higher gusts. A decrease in its strength will continue during the next 24 hours as TEMBIN moves across the Sea of Japan.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 120 kilometers (65 nautical miles). TEMBIN is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 480 kilometers (260 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 1-day forecast outlook on this system:

FRIDAY MORNING: Weakens into a depression as it tranforms into an Extratropical Cyclone while moving across the Sea of Japan...approaching Vladivostok, Russia [5AM AUG 31: 41.3N 131.2E @ 45kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Jeju Island and South Korea. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across North Korea and Western Kyushu. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 150 mm (high) along areas near the center of Tembin (Igme) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of South Korea. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Eastern China and Western Japan (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

NOTE:

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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Wednesday, August 29, 2012

TS TEMBIN [IGME] - Update #029

for Wednesday, 29 August 2012 [12:16 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday August 20, 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on TEMBIN (IGME).

TEMBIN MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): --- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM TEMBIN (IGME) UPDATE NUMBER 029
11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Wed 29 August 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warnings/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

Tropical Storm TEMBIN (IGME) has weakened slightly as it maintained its northerly track across the East China Sea...Rainbands affecting the coastal areas of Eastern China.

TEMBIN will still slightly enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) and affect the western portions of Northern Luzon especially La Union and Ilocos Provinces. Mostly cloudy and windy conditions w/ scattered to passing occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the abovementioned area.

Residents and visitors along the Korean Peninsula and Eastern China should closely monitor the progress of TEMBIN (IGME).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Wed August 29, 2012
Location of Center: 28.6º N Lat 124.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 300 km (ESE) closer to Ningbo, China
Distance 2: 390 km (SE) closer to Shanghai, China
Distance 3: 360 km (ENE) away from Wenzhou, China
Distance 4: 467 km (NNE) away from Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 5: 567 km (SSW) closer to Jeju Island
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 22 kph (12 kts)
Towards: South Korea
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 200 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 480 km (260 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 22 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF (for Philippines only)

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

TEMBIN (IGME) is expected to move NNE to NE-ward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of TEMBIN will continue to move across the East China Sea today...passing close to Jeju Island early Thursday morning...and making landfall over South Korea on Thursday noontime. By Friday morning, TEMBIN will be moving into the Sea of Japan as it approaches Vladivostok, Russia.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 85 km/hr (45 knots) with higher gusts. A decrease in its strength will continue during the next 2 days as TEMBIN moves across cooler seas.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 130 kilometers (70 nautical miles). TEMBIN is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 480 kilometers (260 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:

THURSDAY MORNING: Just along the Southwestern Coast of South Korea [11AM AUG 30: 35.5N 126.4E @ 75kph].
FRIDAY MORNING: Weakens further as it moves across the Sea of Japan...approaching Vladivostok, Russia [11AM AUG 31: 42.6N 132.2E @ 55kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - over water (East China Sea). Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ Near-Typhoon Force Winds (95-140 kph) will be expected along the CDO (click here to know more about CDO).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (East China Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Northern Taiwan and the coastal areas of Eastern China. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (high) along areas near the center of Tembin (Igme) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Northern Taiwan and Eastern China. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of the rest of Taiwan (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: WEAK >> Mostly cloudy skies with some isolated to scattered showers, rains or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN LUZON. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 50 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS TEMBIN (IGME)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1512.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 2 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Tembin's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop