Monday, December 19, 2011

TS WASHI [SENDONG] - Update #017


for Monday, 19 December 2011 [8:45 AM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday Dec 17 2011):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on WASHI (SENDONG).


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Mon 19 Dec 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #023/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm WASHI (SENDONG) has moved out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it moves WSW...starts to weaken while over the South China Sea.

Meanwhile, WASHI continues to enhance the Northeast Monsoon (aka. Amihan) across Northern Luzon. Windy conditions, cooler temperatures, & cloudy skies w/ passing occasional to widespread rains will be expected. Rough seas along the coastal areas facing the Philippine Sea will prevail.

Sailors, Mariners and Sea Navigators near its path should closely monitor the progress of WASHI (SENDONG).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Mon December 19 2011
Location of Center: 9.6º N Lat 113.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 219 km SW of Pagasa Island
Distance 2: 512 km SE of Nha Trang, Vietnam
Distance 3: 625 km West of Puerto Princesa
Distance 4: 702 km ESE of Ho Chi Minh City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Present Movement: WSW @ 17 kph (09 kts)
Towards: South China Sea
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 310 mm (High)
TRMM Rainrate (near center): 30-50 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 370 km (200 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Mon Dec 19


WASHI (SENDONG) is expected to move SW-ward over the next 2 days over the South China Sea. On the forecast track, the core of WASHI will remain over the open waters of the South China Sea, just well to the south of Vietnam.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 85 km/hr (45 knots) with higher gusts. WASHI (SENDONG) is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. It will start to dissipate during the next 2 days.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-95 km/hr) extend outward up to 95 kilometers (50 nautical miles) from the center. WASHI (SENDONG) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 370 kilometers (200 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:

TUESDAY EARLY MORNING:  Starts to weaken as it moves SW across the open waters of the South China Sea, south of Vietnam [2AM DEC 20: 7.9N 109.5E @ 65kph].
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING:  Dissipated over water (South China Sea)...just an area of low pressure [2AM DEC 21: 5.0N 106.0E @ 35kph].


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - over water (South China Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along the CDO. (click here to know more about CDO).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (South China Sea)...not affecting land areas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ Strong Winds (45-61 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (South China Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ light to moderate winds (<44 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 310 mm (high) along areas near the center of WASHI (SENDONG). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Vietnam. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Palawan.
(click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS WASHI (SENDONG)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2711.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 2 days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: WASHI's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr) new!
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop


>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TS WASHI (SENDONG)...go visit our website @:


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