Sunday, December 18, 2011

TS WASHI [SENDONG] - Update #014


for Sunday, 18 December 2011 [6:45 AM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday Dec 17 2011):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on WASHI (SENDONG).


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Sun 18 Dec 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #019/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm WASHI (SENDONG) has just crossed Palawan early this morning...passing very close to Puerto Princesa...weakened slightly as it moves into the West Philippine Sea. Stormy weather prevailing across the area.

Meanwhile, WASHI continues to enhance the Northeast Monsoon (aka. Amihan) across Metro Manila, Luzon, Bicol & Northern Visayas. Windy conditions, cooler temperatures, & cloudy skies w/ passing occasional to widespread rains will be expected. Rough seas along the coastal areas facing the Philippine & Visayan Seas will prevail.

Residents and visitors along Palawan & the Spratly Islands should closely monitor the progress of WASHI (SENDONG).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sun December 18 2011
Location of Center: 10.3º N Lat 118.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 74 km NNW of Puerto Princesa
Distance 2: 273 km SW of Coron, Palawan
Distance 3: 292 km WSW of Cuyo Island
Distance 4: 460 km West of Iloilo City/Guimaras
Distance 5: 493 km West of Bacolod City
Distance 6: 457 km ESE of Pagasa Island
Distance 7: 561 km SSW of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 28 kph (15 kts)
Towards: Spratly Islands-West Philippine Sea Area
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 110 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 15-30 mm/hr (Heavy-VHeavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 500 km (270 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Sun Dec 18


WASHI (SENDONG) is expected to move generally WNW over the next 12 hours...turning Westerly through 24 hours, then WSW to SW'ly by 48 to 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of WASHI will passing over the Spratly Islands this afternoon and move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tonight. By Monday thru Tuesday, WASHI will be over the South China Sea, just well to the south of Vietnam.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 85 km/hr (45 knots) with higher gusts. WASHI (SENDONG) is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Slight strengthening of this system is forecast during the next 12-24 hours..

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-95 km/hr) extend outward up to 95 kilometers (50 nautical miles) from the center. WASHI (SENDONG) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 500 kilometers (270 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

MONDAY EARLY MORNING:  Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...intensifying slightly [2AM DEC 19: 10.7N 114.0E @ 95kph].
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING:  Downgraded to a Tropical Depression (TD) as it moves WSW to SW across the South China Sea [2AM DEC 20: 8.4N 109.2E @ 55kph].
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING:  Dissipated over water...just an area of low pressure [2AM DEC 21: 6.5N 106.4E @ 35kph].


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - weakening over West Philippine longer affecting any land areas, although it will reach a much lesser island population (Spratlys) this afternoon. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along the CDO. (click here to know more about CDO).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Sulu Sea & portions of Northern Palawan. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ Strong Winds (45-61 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Mindoro, Western Visayas & the rest of Palawan. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ light to moderate winds (<44 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 50 mm (low to medium rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 51 to 110 mm (high) along areas near the center of WASHI (SENDONG). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Palawan. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Western Mindanao & Western Visayas.
(click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) click to know meaning
In Effect:

The above area will experience stormy weather today (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).

External Links for TS WASHI (SENDONG)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2711.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3 days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop


>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TS WASHI (SENDONG)...go visit our website @:


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