Saturday, December 17, 2011

TS WASHI [SENDONG] - Update #012


for Saturday, 17 December 2011 [6:50 AM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday Dec 17 2011):

Please be informed that the 12PM updates will be delayed as I will be travelling to the airport to check-in for my Naga flight. Please bear with me. Thank you ~ MVP.


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sat 17 Dec 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #015/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm WASHI (SENDONG) has just passed close to the twin cities of Dipolog & cruising into the Sulu Sea with some improvement in its circulation...threatens Palawan.

Meanwhile, WASHI continues to enhance the Northeast Monsoon (aka. Amihan) across Metro Manila, Luzon, Bicol & Northern Visayas. Windy conditions, cooler temperatures, & cloudy skies w/ passing occasional to widespread rains will be expected. Rough seas along the coastal areas facing the Philippine & Visayan Seas will prevail.

Residents and visitors along Southern Visayas, Mindanao & Palawan should closely monitor the progress of WASHI (SENDONG).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Sat December 17 2011
Location of Center: 8.7º N Lat 123.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 25 km NW of Dipolog City
Distance 2: 35 km WNW of Dapitan City
Distance 3: 70 km SSW of Dumaguete City
Distance 4: 102 km NW of Ozamiz City
Distance 5: 126 km SSW of Tagbilaran City
Distance 6: 133 km WNW of Iligan City
Distance 7: 166 km WNW of Cagayan De Oro City
Distance 8: 198 km SSW of Metro Cebu
Distance 9: 212 km South of Bacolod City
Distance 10: 218 km SSE of Guimaras
Distance 11: 229 km SSE of Iloilo City
Distance 12: 228 km NNE of Zamboanga City
Distance 13: 336 km SE of Cuyo Island
Distance 14: 496 km ESE of Puerto Princesa City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 31 kph (17 kts)
Towards: Sulu Sea & Palawan
CPA [ETA] to Dapitan-Dipolog Cities: Now [5-6AM PhT]
12-18hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 130 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 15-30 mm/hr (Heavy-VHeavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 500 km (270 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 9 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Sat Dec 17


WASHI (SENDONG) is expected to move generally WNW with a decrease in its forward speed during the next 12 to 24 hours...turning Westward through 48 hours, then WSW-ward by 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of WASHI will move across the warm Sulu Sea today...and will be traversing Southern Palawan by early Sunday morning. It will then pass over the Spratly Islands by Sunday afternoon and move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). By early Monday morning thru Tuesday, WASHI will be over the South China Sea, well to the south of Vietnam.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 85 km/hr (45 knots) with higher gusts. WASHI (SENDONG) is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Re-strengthening of this system is forecast during the next 12-24 hours..

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-95 km/hr) extend outward up to 100 kilometers (55 nautical miles) from the center. WASHI (SENDONG) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 500 kilometers (270 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING:  Over Southern Palawan...moving into the West Philippine Sea towards Spratlys...intensifying [2AM DEC 18: 9.3N 118.1E @ 95kph].
MONDAY EARLY MORNING:  Already outside of PAR...turning westward while over the South China Sea...intensity at near-typhoon strength [2AM DEC 19: 9.3N 112.8E @ 100kph].
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING:  Starts to decay as it turns WSW across the South China Sea...passing well to the south of Vietnam [2AM DEC 20: 8.3N 108.9E @ 85kph].


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - entering Sulu Sea or near the northern coast of Zamboanga Del Norte...affecting Dapitan & Dipolog Cities & the Southern Coast of Negros including Dumaguete City. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along the CDO. (click here to know more about CDO).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Misamis Occidental, Rest of Zamboanga & Lanao Provinces . Tropical Depression Conditions w/ Strong Winds (45-61 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Sulu Sea, Central Mindanao, & the Rest of Visayas including Masbate. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ light to moderate winds (<44 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
12-18HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 50 mm (low to medium rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 51 to 130 mm (high) along areas near the center of WASHI (SENDONG). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Lanao, Misamis & Zamboanga Provinces. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Mindanao & the Visayas.
(click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) click to know meaning
In Effect:

The above areas will experience stormy weather today (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).

External Links for TS WASHI (SENDONG)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2711.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop


>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TS WASHI (SENDONG)...go visit our website @:


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