Wednesday, December 14, 2011

TS 27W [Pre-SENDONG] - Update #004


for Wednesday, 14 December 2011 [5:45 PM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday Dec 14 2011):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on 27W (Pre-SENDONG).


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr


5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Wed 14 Dec 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #005/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
27W (Pre-SENDONG) has strengthened into a Tropical Storm as it swiftly tracks westward...moving closer to Palau.

Projected Landfall Area (PLA): Along the northern tip of Surigao Del Norte by early Saturday morning.

Residents and visitors along Western Micronesia, Palau & Southern Philippines should closely monitor the progress of 27W (UNNAMED).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Wed December 14 2011
Location of Center: 6.3º N Lat 138.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 356 km South of Yap, FSM
Distance 2: 365 km East of P.A.R.
Distance 3: 431 km ESE of Koror, Palau
Distance 4: 1,343 km ESE of Hinatuan, Surigao Del Sur, PH
Distance 5: 1,462 km ESE of Surigao City, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 30 kph (16 kts)
Towards: Palau
CPA [ETA] to Surigao DN: Saturday Early Morning [1-2AM PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 250 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) [N/A]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Wed Dec 14


27W (Pre-SENDONG) is expected to move generally to the WNW for the next 3 days...with a slight decrease on its forward speed. On the forecast track, the core of the storm will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and pass very close to Palau Island by tomorrow morning (Thursday). It will then pass over the northern tip Surigao Del Norte, Dinagat & Siargao Islands by early Saturday morning...and will move along the southern tip of Leyte, Northern Coast of Bohol, Cebu and Negros by Saturday afternoon.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. 27W (Pre-SENDONG) is now a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Continued strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 48 hours...and 27W could become a Typhoon on Friday afternoon.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

THURSDAY AFTERNOON:  Becoming a strong Tropical Storm (TS) after passing very close to Palau...enters the Philippine Sea [2PM DEC 15: 7.3N 133.4E @ 95kph].
FRIDAY AFTERNOON:  Upgraded to a Category 1 Typhoon as it approaches the coastal areas of Northeastern Mindanao [2PM DEC 16: 8.9N 128.4E @ 120kph].
SATURDAY AFTERNOON:  Downgraded to a TS while crossing Central the vicinity of Central Negros or very near Bacolod City [2PM DEC 17: 10.6N 123.2E @ 110kph].


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Yap & Ulithi Islands...approaching Palau. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 120 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 121 to 250 mm (high) along areas near the center of 27W (Pre-SENDONG). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS 27W (Pre-SENDONG)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2711.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3 days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop


>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TS 27W (Pre-SENDONG)...go visit our website @:


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