Saturday, December 17, 2011

TS WASHI [SENDONG] - Update #013


for Saturday, 17 December 2011 [6:45 PM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday Dec 17 2011):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on WASHI (SENDONG).


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Sat 17 Dec 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #017/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm WASHI (SENDONG) heading westward across Sulu Sea...expected to cross Central Palawan early tomorrow morning. Heavy rains & strong winds to reach Palawan, particularly Puerto Princesa tonight.

Meanwhile, WASHI continues to enhance the Northeast Monsoon (aka. Amihan) across Metro Manila, Luzon, Bicol & Northern Visayas. Windy conditions, cooler temperatures, & cloudy skies w/ passing occasional to widespread rains will be expected. Rough seas along the coastal areas facing the Philippine & Visayan Seas will prevail.

Residents and visitors along Palawan & the Spratly Islands should closely monitor the progress of WASHI (SENDONG).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Sat December 17 2011
Location of Center: 9.3º N Lat 120.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 181 km SSW of Cuyo Island
Distance 2: 224 km ESE of Puerto Princesa City
Distance 3: 260 km SW of Iloilo City
Distance 4: 253 km SW of Guimaras
Distance 5: 281 km SW of Bacolod City
Distance 6: 285 km West of Dumaguete City
Distance 7: 296 km WNW of Dipolog City
Distance 8: 304 km WNW of Dapitan City
Distance 9: 308 km NNW of Zamboanga City
Distance 10: 305 km South of Coron, Palawan
Distance 11: 728 km ESE of Pagasa Is., Spratlys
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 22 kph (12 kts)
Towards: Palawan
CPA [ETA] to Puerto Princesa: Early Sunday [2-3AM PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 120 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 15-30 mm/hr (Heavy-VHeavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 500 km (270 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 11 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Sat Dec 17


WASHI (SENDONG) is expected to move generally WNW over the next 12 to 24 hours...turning Westerly through 48 hours, then WSW to SW'ly by 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of WASHI will cross Central Palawan by early Sunday morning...passing very close to Puerto Princesa at around 2-3 AM. It will then pass over the Spratly Islands around Sunday afternoon and move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). By Monday afternoon thru Tuesday, WASHI will be over the South China Sea, just well to the south of Vietnam.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 100 km/hr (55 knots) with higher gusts. WASHI (SENDONG) is a powerful Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Slight strengthening of this system is forecast during the next 12-24 hours..

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-95 km/hr) extend outward up to 110 kilometers (60 nautical miles) from the center. WASHI (SENDONG) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 500 kilometers (270 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SUNDAY AFTERNOON:  Passing over the Spratly Islands in the West Philippine Sea...moving out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) [2PM DEC 18: 10.0N 116.2E @ 110kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON:  Already outside of PAR...turning west to WSW while over the South China Sea [2PM DEC 19: 9.6N 111.6E @ 95kph].
TUESDAY AFTERNOON:  Passing well to the south of Vietnam or over the South China Sea...heading SW-ward [2PM DEC 20: 8.0N 108.0E @ 85kph].


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - over Sulu Sea...approaching Central Palawan particularly Puerto Princesa. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along the CDO. (click here to know more about CDO).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Sulu Sea & portions of Northern Palawan. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ Strong Winds (45-61 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Mindoro, Western Visayas & the rest of Palawan. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ light to moderate winds (<44 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 50 mm (low to medium rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 51 to 120 mm (high) along areas near the center of WASHI (SENDONG). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Palawan. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Western Mindanao & Western Visayas.
(click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) click to know meaning
In Effect:

The above area will experience stormy weather today (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).

External Links for TS WASHI (SENDONG)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2711.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop


>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TS WASHI (SENDONG)...go visit our website @:


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