Saturday, December 17, 2011

TS WASHI [SENDONG] - Update #011


for Saturday, 17 December 2011 [1:30 AM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday Dec 14 2011):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on WASHI (SENDONG).


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 70 km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


12:00 AM PhT (16:00 GMT) Sat 17 Dec 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #014/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm WASHI (SENDONG) still intact after crossing Agusan Del Sur & Bukidnon this evening...just passed near Cagayan De Oro City awhile ago...currently over Iligan Bay and approaching Misamis Occidental & Dapitan-Dipolog Cities. Strong winds and widespread rains lashing Western Mindanao & Southern Visayas.

Meanwhile, WASHI is now enhancing the Northeast Monsoon (aka. Amihan) across Luzon, Bicol & Northern Visayas. Windy conditions, cooler temperatures, & cloudy skies w/ passing occasional to widespread rains expected. Rough seas along the coastal areas facing the Philippine & Visayan Sea will prevail.

Residents and visitors along Southern Visayas, Mindanao & Palawan should closely monitor the progress of WASHI (SENDONG).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 12:00 AM PhT Sat December 17 2011
Location of Center: 8.5º N Lat 124.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 33 km West of Cagayan De Oro City
Distance 2: 35 km North of Iligan City
Distance 3: 101 km ESE of Dapitan City
Distance 4: 111 km ESE of Dipolog City
Distance 5: 71 km NE of Ozamis City
Distance 6: 89 km WNW of Malaybalay, Bukidnon
Distance 7: 134 km SSE of Tagbilaran City
Distance 8: 141 km SE of Dumaguete City
Distance 9: 205 km SSE of Metro Cebu
Distance 10: 211 km NW of Metro Davao
Distance 11: 279 km SSE of Bacolod City
Distance 12: 300 km SSE of Guimaras Island
Distance 13: 307 km SSE of Iloilo City
Distance 14: 629 km ESE of Puerto Princesa City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 26 kph (14 kts)
Towards: Misamis Occidental-Dapitan & Dipolog Cities
CPA [ETA] to Dapitan-Dipolog Cities: Early Today [3-4AM PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 200 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 15-30 mm/hr (Heavy-VHeavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 500 km (270 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Sat Dec 17


WASHI (SENDONG) is expected to continue moving generally West to WNW with little change in its forward speed during the next 2 days...turning WSW on Day 3. A little change in its forward speed can be expected on this system. On the forecast track, the core of WASHI will pass along the northern shores of Misamis Occidental & Zamboanga Del Norte, passing very close to twin cities of Dapitan & Dipolog just before sunrise today (approx. 3-4AM). It will then move across Sulu Sea this morning...crossing the South-Central portion of Palawan by early Sunday morning. By Sunday evening thru Monday, WASHI will move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) while passing over the Spratly Islands.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 85 km/hr (45 knots) with higher gusts. WASHI (SENDONG) is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Some weakening of this system is forecast during the next 6-12 hours...with re-strengthening occuring over Sulu Sea during the next 24 to 48 hours..

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-95 km/hr) extend outward up to 95 kilometers (50 nautical miles) from the center. WASHI (SENDONG) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 500 kilometers (270 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SATURDAY EVENING:  Re-strengthens while traversing Sulu Sea...inching closer to the east coast of South-Central Palawan [8PM DEC 17: 9.2N 120.1E @ 65kph].
SUNDAY EVENING:  Near-Typhoon strength while over the West Philippine Sea...passing across the Spratlys as it exits PAR [8PM DEC 18: 9.7N 115.3E @ 100kph].
MONDAY EVENING:  Starts to decay as it turns WSW-ward across the South China Sea [8PM DEC 19: 9.2N 110.7E @ 95kph].


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - hovering over the Bay of Iligan...affecting Misamis Occidental & Zamboanga Del Norte. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along the CDO. (click here to know more about CDO).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Rest of Zamboanga & Lanao Provinces . Tropical Depression Conditions w/ Strong Winds (45-61 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the Rest of Mindanao, Southern & Eastern Visayas. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ light to moderate winds (<44 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to medium rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 150 mm (high) along areas near the center of WASHI (SENDONG). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Lanao, Misamis & Zamboanga Provinces. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Mindanao & the Visayas.
(click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) click to know meaning
In Effect:

The above areas will experience stormy weather today (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).

External Links for TS WASHI (SENDONG)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2711.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop


>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TS WASHI (SENDONG)...go visit our website @:


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