Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday Dec 14 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on WASHI (SENDONG).
WASHI (SENDONG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM WASHI [SENDONG/27W/1121]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 008
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Fri 16 Dec 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #011/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm WASHI (SENDONG) has slightly intensified last night as it maintains its fast westerly motion...approaching Northern Mindanao...expected to make landfall near Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur this afternoon & cross Agusan Del Sur.
Projected Landfall Area [PLA]: Surigao Del Sur (this afternoon)
Residents and visitors along Visayas, Southern Bicol & Mindanao should closely monitor the progress of WASHI (SENDONG).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Fri December 16 2011
Location of Center: 7.5º N Lat 128.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 265 km ESE of Bislig City
Distance 2: 272 km ESE of Hinatuan, Surigao Del Sur
Distance 3: 402 km ESE of Malaybalay, Bukidnon
Distance 4: 334 km ENE of Metro Davao
Distance 5: 375 km SE of Butuan City
Distance 6: 426 km SE of Surigao City
Distance 7: 454 km ESE of Cagayan De Oro City
Distance 8: 577 km SE of Tagbilaran City
Distance 9: 596 km ESE of Dipolog City
Distance 10: 616 km SE of Dumaguete City
Distance 11: 603 km SE of Metro Cebu
Distance 12: 714 km SE of Bacolod City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 31 kph (17 kts)
Towards: Surigao Del Sur-Agusan Del Sur Area
CPA [ETA] to Surigao Del Sur: This Afternoon [12-1PM PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 200 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 20-30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 500 km (270 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 17 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Fri Dec 16
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
WASHI (SENDONG) is expected to move on a generally West to WNW track for the next 2 to 3 days...with a decrease in its forward speed. On the forecast track, the core of WASHI will make landfall over Surigao Del Sur, very close to Bislig City early this afternoon (approx 1-2 PM local time), and traverse Agusan Del Sur later this afternoon. It will then move across the Northern portion of Bukidnon and will pass very close to Cagayan De Oro this evening. By early Saturday morning, WASHI will be in the vicinity of Zamboanga Del Norte - passing very close to Dipolog City, and will be moving across Southern Palawan early Sunday. This storm will move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) Sunday night or early Monday morning.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 75 km/hr (40 knots) with higher gusts. WASHI (SENDONG) is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Little strengthening of this system is forecast during the next 6 hours just before landfall. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-95 km/hr) extend outward up to 85 kilometers (45 nautical miles) from the center. WASHI (SENDONG) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 500 kilometers (270 nautical miles).
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Downgraded to a Tropical Depression (TD) as the storm traverses the rugged terrain of Mindanao...in the vicinity of Zamboanga Del Norte or over Dipolog City [2AM DEC 17: 8.6N 123.3E @ 55kph].
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Regains Tropical Storm (TS) strength...just along the west coast of Southern Palawan [2AM DEC 18: 9.2N 117.4E @ 75kph].
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Exits PAR as it moves over the West Philippine Sea...intensifies [2AM DEC 19: 9.6N 112.2E @ 100kph].
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - over water (Southeastern part of the Philippine Sea)...approaching the coast of Surigao Del Sur & Davao Oriental. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-95 kph) will be expected along the developing CDO. (click here to know more about CDO).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Surigao Provinces & Davor Oriental including Siargao & Dinagat Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ Strong Winds (45-61 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Eastern Visayas, the rest of Northern, Central, & Southern Mindanao,. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ light to moderate winds (<44 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (high) along areas near the center of WASHI (SENDONG). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Surigao Provinces & Davao Oriental. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Mindanao & the Visayas. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
Now In Effect: LEYTE PROVINCES, CAMOTES ISLAND, BOHOL, SURIGAO PROVINCES, SIARGAO & DINAGAT ISLANDS, AGUSAN PROVINCES, MISAMIS ORIENTAL, CAMIGUIN, BUKIDNON, DAVAO DEL NORTE, COMPOSTELA VALLEY, SAMAL ISLAND, & DAVAO ORIENTAL
The above areas will experience stormy weather today (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: SORSOGON, TICAO ISLAND, MASBATE, SAMAR PROVINCES, BILIRAN ISLAND, PANAY, GUIMARAS, NEGROS, CEBU, SIQUIJOR ISLAND, NORTHERN COTABATO, NORTHERN DAVAO DEL SUR, LANAO PROVINCES, MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL, & ZAMBOANGA PROVINCES.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).
External Links for TS WASHI (SENDONG)
PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2711.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TS WASHI (SENDONG)...go visit our website @:
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