Sunday, December 18, 2011

TS WASHI [SENDONG] - Update #016


for Sunday, 18 December 2011 [6:27 PM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday Dec 17 2011):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on WASHI (SENDONG).


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Sun 18 Dec 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #021/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm WASHI (SENDONG) gained strength as it passes near the Spratlys...about to move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it accelerates WSW. All storm warning signals are now lifted.

Meanwhile, WASHI continues to enhance the Northeast Monsoon (aka. Amihan) across Metro Manila, Luzon, Bicol & Northern Visayas. Windy conditions, cooler temperatures, & cloudy skies w/ passing occasional to widespread rains will be expected. Rough seas along the coastal areas facing the Philippine & Visayan Seas will prevail.

Sailors, Mariners and Sea Navigators near its path should closely monitor the progress of WASHI (SENDONG).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Sun December 18 2011
Location of Center: 10.3º N Lat 115.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 125 km SE of Pagasa Island
Distance 2: 400 km WNW of Puerto Princesa
Distance 3: 588 km WSW of Coron, Palawan
Distance 4: 648 km WSW of Cuyo Island
Distance 5: 821 km WSW of Iloilo/Guimaras
Distance 6: 853 km West of Bacolod City
Distance 7: 808 km SW of Metro Manila
Distance 8: 677 km ESE of Nha Trang, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (65 kts)
Present Movement: WSW @ 33 kph (18 kts)
Towards: South China Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 320 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (VHeavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 425 km (230 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Sun Dec 18


WASHI (SENDONG) is expected to move more WSW to SW-ward over the next 3 days over the South China Sea. On the forecast track, the core of WASHI will remnain over the open waters of the South China Sea, just well to the south of Vietnam.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 95 km/hr (50 knots) with higher gusts. WASHI (SENDONG) is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. It will start to weaken during the next 2 days before it starts to dissipate.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-95 km/hr) extend outward up to 95 kilometers (50 nautical miles) from the center. WASHI (SENDONG) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 425 kilometers (230 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

MONDAY AFTERNOON:  Already outside PAR as it turns more southwestward while over the South China Sea...starts to weaken [2PM DEC 19: 9.2N 110.4E @ 85kph].
TUESDAY AFTERNOON:  Downgraded to a Tropical Depression (TD) as maintain its SW track across the South China Sea...well to the south of Vietnam [2PM DEC 20: 6.7N 106.4E @ 45kph].
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON:  Dissipated over water (South China Sea)...just an area of low pressure [2PM DEC 21: 4.8N 104.9E @ 35kph].


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - over water (West Philippine Sea) longer affecting any land areas, although a much lesser island population (Spratlys) are feeling the effects of this storm. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-120 kph) will be expected along the CDO. (click here to know more about CDO).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (West Philippine Sea) longer affecting land areas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ Strong Winds (45-61 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across some portions of Palawan. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ light to moderate winds (<44 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 320 mm (high) along areas near the center of WASHI (SENDONG). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Western Palawan & the Spratly Islands. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Eastern Vietnam, Western Mindanao & Western Visayas.
(click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS WASHI (SENDONG)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2711.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3 days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop


>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TS WASHI (SENDONG)...go visit our website @:


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