for Friday, 16 December 2011 [12:51 PM PhT]
Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday Dec 14 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on WASHI (SENDONG).
WASHI (SENDONG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM WASHI [SENDONG/27W/1121]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 009
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Fri 16 Dec 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #012/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm WASHI (SENDONG) has strengthened slightly as it bears down the east coast of Davao Oriental...Landfall expected near the Surigao Del Sur-Davao Oriental Border early this afternoon.
Projected Landfall Area [PLA]: Between Bislig City & Boston Town (this afternoon)
Residents and visitors along Southern Visayas, Mindanao & Palawan should closely monitor the progress of WASHI (SENDONG).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Fri December 16 2011
Location of Center: 7.6º N Lat 127.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 119 km SE of Bislig City
Distance 2: 133 km ESE of Hinatuan, Surigao Del Sur
Distance 3: 249 km ESE of Malaybalay, Bukidnon
Distance 4: 185 km ENE of Metro Davao
Distance 5: 236 km SE of Butuan City
Distance 6: 308 km SE of Surigao City
Distance 7: 303 km ESE of Cagayan De Oro City
Distance 8: 435 km SE of Tagbilaran City
Distance 9: 443 km ESE of Dipolog City
Distance 10: 469 km SE of Dumaguete City
Distance 11: 471 km SE of Metro Cebu
Distance 12: 578 km SE of Bacolod City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 24 kph (13 kts)
Towards: Davao Oriental-Surigao Del Sur Area
CPA [ETA] to Davao Oriental: This Afternoon [2-3PM PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 205 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 15-30 mm/hr (Heavy-VHeavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 500 km (270 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 17 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Fri Dec 16
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
WASHI (SENDONG) is expected to continue moving West to WNW for the next 2 to 3 days...with little change in its forward speed. On the forecast track, the core of WASHI will make landfall just south of the Surigao Del Sur-Davao Oriental Border or along the towns of Boston & Cateel in Davao Oriental early this afternoon (approx 2-3 PM local time), and will the northern part of Compostela Valley & Davao Province later before sunset. It will then move across Bukidnon, passing very close to Malaybalay tonight. By Saturday morning, WASHI will be along the west coast of Zamboanga Del Norte right after passing Lanao & Zamboanga Provinces, and will be moving across Southern Palawan Sunday morning. This storm will move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) Sunday night or early Monday morning.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 85 km/hr (45 knots) with higher gusts. WASHI (SENDONG) is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Rapid weakening of this system is forecast during the next 6-12 hours as WASHI crosses Mindanao.
Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 95 kilometers (50 nautical miles) from the center. WASHI (SENDONG) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 500 kilometers (270 nautical miles).
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
SATURDAY MORNING: Downgraded to a Tropical Depression (TD) as the storm traverses the rugged terrain of Mindanao...just along the west coast of Zamboanga Del Norte or over Sindangan Point [8AM DEC 17: 8.2N 122.6E @ 55kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Regains Tropical Storm (TS) strength...just along the west coast of Southern Palawan [8AM DEC 18: 9.1N 117.3E @ 100kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Exits PAR as it moves over the West Philippine Sea [8AM DEC 19: 9.4N 113.1E @ 100kph].
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - over water (just along the east coast of Davao Oriental)...approaching the coast of Davao Oriental. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along the developing CDO. (click here to know more about CDO). INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Surigao Provinces & Davao Oriental including Siargao & Dinagat Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ Strong Winds (45-61 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Southern Samar, Leyte, Bohol, the rest of Northern, Central, & Southern Mindanao,. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ light to moderate winds (<44 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 205 mm (high) along areas near the center of WASHI (SENDONG). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic). COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Surigao Provinces & Davao Oriental. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Mindanao & the Visayas. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) 
In Effect: SOUTHERN LEYTE, BOHOL, SOUTHERN CEBU, SOUTHERN NEGROS, SIQUIJOR ISLAND, SURIGAO PROVINCES, SIARGAO & DINAGAT ISLANDS, AGUSAN PROVINCES, DAVAO DEL NORTE, DAVAO ORIENTAL, SAMAL ISLAND, LANAO PROVINCES, MISAMIS PROVINCES, ZAMBOANGA PROVINCES, NORTH COTABATO, COMPOSTELA VALLEY, BUKIDNON, CAMIGUIN, & MAGUINDANAO
The above areas will experience stormy weather today (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: PALAWAN, CUYO ISLAND, EASTERN & WESTERN SAMAR, NORTHERN LEYTE, NORTHERN CEBU, NORTHERN NEGROS, ILOILO, CAPIZ, ANTIQUE, AKLAN, GUIMARAS, DAVAO DEL SUR, SULTAN KUDARAT, SOUTH COTABATO, SARANGANI PROVINCE, & BASILAN PROVINCE.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).
External Links for TS WASHI (SENDONG)
PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2711.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS WASHI (SENDONG)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
Copyright © 2011 Typhoon2000.com All Rights Reserved
No comments:
Post a Comment