for Thursday, 15 December 2011 [12:30 PM PhT]
Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday Dec 14 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on 27W (SENDONG).
27W (SENDONG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W [SENDONG]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 006
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Thu 15 Dec 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #008/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
27W (SENDONG) weakens into a Tropical Depression while passing over Palau this morning...now inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...threatens Northern Mindanao & the Visayas.
Projected Landfall Area [PLA]: Southern Leyte (early Saturday morning)
Residents and visitors along Visayas, Southern Bicol & Mindanao should closely monitor the progress of 27W (SENDONG).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Thu December 15 2011
Location of Center: 7.4º N Lat 133.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 156 km West of Koror, Palau
Distance 2: 757 km ESE of Hinatuan, Surigao Del Sur, PH
Distance 3: 877 km ESE of Surigao City, PH
Distance 4: 853 km ESE of Butuan City, PH
Distance 5: 910 km SE of Guiuan, E.Samar, PH
Distance 6: 984 km SE of Tacloban City, PH
Distance 7: 1,015 km SE of Ormoc City, PH
Distance 8: 1,061 km SE of Metro Cebu, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 37 kph (20 kts)
Towards: Surigao-Leyte Area
CPA [ETA] to Southern Leyte: Saturday Early Morning [12-1AM PhT]
12-18hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 120 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) [N/A]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Thu Dec 15
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
27W (SENDONG) is expected to move generally WNW for the next 2 to 3 days...with a decrease on its forward speed. On the forecast track, the core of 27W will be entering Leyte Gulf tomorrow evening (Friday), making landfall over Southern Leyte around midnight of Saturday. By Saturday morning, the cyclone will then traverse the Visayas passing across Northern Cebu, the northern tip of Negros & will be in the vicinity of Panay by Saturday afternoon. 27W will be moving out into the West Philippine Sea after passing between Calamian Group and Northern Palawan on Sunday morning.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 55 km/hr (30 knots) with higher gusts. 27W (SENDONG) is a Tropical Depression (TD) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Re-strengthening of this system is forecast during the next 12 to 24 hours...and 27W could regain Tropical Storm status later tonight.
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
FRIDAY MORNING: Regains strength, back to Tropical Storm (TS) status as it moves WNW across the warm Philippine Sea, approaching the coast of Northeastern Mindanao & Eastern Visayas [8AM DEC 16: 9.2N 128.6E @ 75kph].
SATURDAY MORNING: Strengthens into a strong TS as it traverses the Visayas...just along the northern tip of Negros [8AM DEC 17: 10.9N 123.3E @ 100kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Losing strength as it moves out into the West Philippine Sea [8AM DEC 18: 11.7N 118.3E @ 85kph].
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Palau, Yap & Ulithi Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 12-18HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 50 mm (low to medium rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 51 to 120 mm (high) along areas near the center of 27W (Pre-SENDONG). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TD 27W (SENDONG)
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2711.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TD 27W (SENDONG)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
Copyright © 2011 Typhoon2000.com All Rights Reserved
No comments:
Post a Comment