Thursday, December 15, 2011

TS 27W [Pre-SENDONG] - Update #005


for Thursday, 15 December 2011 [5:35 AM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday Dec 14 2011):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on 27W (Pre-SENDONG).


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr


5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Thu 15 Dec 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #007/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm 27W (Pre-SENDONG) moving Westward closer to Palau...expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this morning.

Projected Landfall Area [PLA]: Leyte (early Saturday morning)

Residents and visitors along Western Micronesia, Palau, Visayas & Mindanao should closely monitor the progress of 27W (UNNAMED).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Thu December 15 2011
Location of Center: 7.2º N Lat 135.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 66 km East of P.A.R.
Distance 2: 121 km East of Koror, Palau
Distance 3: 376 km SW of Yap, FSM
Distance 4: 1,033 km ESE of Hinatuan, Surigao Del Sur, PH
Distance 5: 1,147 km ESE of Surigao City, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 26 kph (14 kts)
Towards: Palau & Philippine Sea
CPA [ETA] to Leyte: Saturday Early Morning [2-3AM PhT]
12-18hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 120 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) [N/A]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Thu Dec 15


27W (Pre-SENDONG) is expected to continue moving generally WNW for the next 3 days...with little change on its forward speed. On the forecast track, the core of the storm will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this morning and pass very close to Palau Island before noon today. It will then make landfall over Leyte by early Saturday morning...crossing Northern Cebu, the northern tip of Negros & Panay thru Saturday afternoon. 27W will be in the vicinity of Northern Palawan-Calamian Group Area by early morning Sunday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. 27W (Pre-SENDONG) is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Continued strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 48 hours...and 27W could become a Typhoon before making landfall on Saturday.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

FRIDAY EARLY MORNING:  Becoming a strong Tropical Storm (TS) as it moves WNW across the warm Philippine Sea [2AM DEC 16: 8.7N 130.8E @ 85kph].
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING:  Upgraded to a minimal Typhoon as it bears down the Gulf of Leyte...prepares to make landfall [2AM DEC 17: 10.4N 125.6E @ 120kph].
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING:  Downgraded to a TS after crossing Central & Northern the vicinity of Calamian-Northern Palawan Area [2AM DEC 18: 11.3N 120.2E @ 100kph].


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Palau, Yap & Ulithi Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
12-18HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 50 mm (low to medium rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 51 to 120 mm (high) along areas near the center of 27W (Pre-SENDONG). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS 27W (Pre-SENDONG)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2711.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3 days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop


>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TS 27W (Pre-SENDONG)...go visit our website @:


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