for Friday, 16 December 2011 [6:42 PM PhT]
Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday Dec 14 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on WASHI (SENDONG).
WASHI (SENDONG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM WASHI [SENDONG/27W/1121]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 010
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Fri 16 Dec 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #013/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm WASHI (SENDONG) has made landfall along the Surigao Del Sur-Davao Oriental Border, very near the City of Bislig...thick rainbands spreading across Mindanao & parts of the Visayas...expected to lose strength as it traverses Agusan Del Sur & Bukidnon tonight.
Meanwhile, WASHI will enhance the Northeast Monsoon (aka. Amihan) across Luzon - bringing windy conditions, cooler temperatures, & cloudy skies w/ passing showers expected. Rough seas along the coastal areas facing the Philippine Sea will commence.
Residents and visitors along Southern Visayas, Mindanao & Palawan should closely monitor the progress of WASHI (SENDONG).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Fri December 16 2011
Location of Center: 8.2º N Lat 126.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 33 km West of Bislig City
Distance 2: 40 km WSW of Hinatuan, Surigao Del Sur
Distance 3: 95 km SSE of Butuan City
Distance 4: 111 km ENE of Malaybalay, Bukidnon
Distance 5: 130 km NNE of Metro Davao
Distance 6: 186 km SSE of Surigao City
Distance 7: 158 km ESE of Cagayan De Oro City
Distance 8: 294 km SE of Tagbilaran City
Distance 9: 198 km East of Iligan City
Distance 10: 300 km ESE of Dipolog City
Distance 11: 321 km SE of Dumaguete City
Distance 12: 328 km SE of Metro Cebu
Distance 13: 432 km SE of Bacolod City
Distance 14: 289 km ESE of Dapitan City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 24 kph (13 kts)
Towards: Agusan Del Sur & Bukidnon
CPA [ETA] to Davao Oriental-Surigao Del Sur: Now [5-6PM PhT]
12-18hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 150 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 15-30 mm/hr (Heavy-VHeavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 500 km (270 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 17 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Fri Dec 16
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
WASHI (SENDONG) is expected to continue moving West to WNW for the next 2 to 3 days...with little change in its forward speed. On the forecast track, the core of WASHI will cross Agusan Del Sur & Bukidnon tonight, passing in between the cities of Iligan & Cagayan De Oro around midnight & will be along Iligan Bay by early Saturday morning (approx. 2-3AM). It will then move across Misamis Occidental & Zamboanga Del Norte by Sunrise Saturday as it passes very close to Dipolog & Dapitan Cities. By Saturday afternoon, WASHI will be moving across Sulu Sea and will start to pass over Southern Palawan early Sunday morning. This storm will therefore pass very close to Spratlys on Sunday afternoon, before moving out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) Sunday evening. It will intensify further to near-typhoon strength while over the South China Sea on Monday afternoon.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 75 km/hr (40 knots) with higher gusts. WASHI (SENDONG) is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Rapid weakening of this system is forecast during the next 6-12 hours...and WASHI could be downgraded to a Tropical Depression due to its interaction with Mindanao's massive land mass.
Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-95 km/hr) extend outward up to 95 kilometers (50 nautical miles) from the center. WASHI (SENDONG) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 500 kilometers (270 nautical miles).
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Moving across the Sulu Sea, with regained strength...heading towards Palawan [2PM DEC 17: 8.8N 121.4E @ 65kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifying while over the West Philippine Sea...passing near the Spratly Islands...turns westward [2PM DEC 18: 9.5N 116.4E @ 85kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Exits PAR as it moves into the southern portion of the South China Sea...turns WSW-ward [2PM DEC 19: 9.4N 111.9E @ 100kph].
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - entering land...spreading & affecting Davao Oriental & Surigao Del Sur. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-95 kph) will be expected along the CDO. (click here to know more about CDO). INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Rest of Surigao & Davao Provinces, Compostela Valley, Bukidnon & Agusan Del Sur including Siargao & Dinagat Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ Strong Winds (45-61 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the Rest of Mindanao, Southern & Eastern Visayas. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ light to moderate winds (<44 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 12-18HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 50 mm (low to medium rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 51 to 150 mm (high) along areas near the center of WASHI (SENDONG). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic). COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Surigao Provinces & Davao Oriental. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Mindanao & the Visayas. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) 
In Effect: SURIGAO PROVINCES, SIARGAO & DINAGAT ISLANDS, AGUSAN PROVINCES, BUKIDNON, DAVAO DEL NORTE, DAVAO ORIENTAL, COMPOSTELA VALLEY, & CAMIGUIN.
The above areas will experience stormy weather today (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and dangerous to all types of seacrafts.
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: NEGROS, CEBU, BOHOL, SOUTHERN LEYTE, SIQUIJOR, MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL, LANAO PROVINCES, NORTH COTABATO, SAMAL ISLAND, MAGUINDANAO, DAVAO DEL SUR, & ZAMBOANGA PROVINCES.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).
External Links for TS WASHI (SENDONG)
PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2711.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS WASHI (SENDONG)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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