for Thursday, 15 December 2011 [7:00 PM PhT]
Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday Dec 14 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on WASHI (SENDONG).
WASHI (SENDONG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): -- km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM WASHI [SENDONG/27W/1121]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 007
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Thu 15 Dec 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #009/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
WASHI (SENDONG) regains Tropical Storm strength while maintaining its fast West to WNW track...endangers Northern Mindanao & Southern Visayas.
Projected Landfall Area [PLA]: Surigao Del Sur (Friday afternoon)
Residents and visitors along Visayas, Southern Bicol & Mindanao should closely monitor the progress of WASHI (SENDONG).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Thu December 15 2011
Location of Center: 7.7º N Lat 131.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 368 km WNW of Koror, Palau
Distance 2: 545 km ESE of Hinatuan, Surigao Del Sur
Distance 3: 668 km SE of Surigao City
Distance 4: 641 km ESE of Butuan City
Distance 5: 732 km ESE of Cagayan De Oro City
Distance 6: 783 km SE of Tacloban City, PH
Distance 7: 812 km SE of Ormoc City, PH
Distance 8: 840 km ESE of Tagbilaran City
Distance 9: 852 km SE of Metro Cebu
Distance 10: 887 km ESE of Dumaguete City
Distance 11: 966 km SE of Bacolod City
Distance 12: 1,000 km SE of Iloilo City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 37 kph (20 kts)
Towards: Surigao Provinces
CPA [ETA] to Southern Leyte: Saturday Early Morning [12-1AM PhT]
12-18hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 120 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 500 km (270 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 16 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Thu Dec 15
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
WASHI (SENDONG) is expected to move on a generally WNW-straight runner track for the next 2 to 3 days...with a decrease in its forward speed. On the forecast track, the core of WASHI will be making landfall over Surigao Del Sur tomorrow afternoon (Friday), and traversing Agusan Del Norte & Camiguin Island later in the evening. By early Saturday morning, the storm will then pass over Siquijor Island and along the Southern tip of Negros. WASHI will be crossing Northern Palawan by Saturday afternoon and will be over the West Philippine Sea Sunday afternoon.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. WASHI (SENDONG) is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Continued strengthening of this system is forecast during the next 12 to 24 hours...and WASHI could become a strong Tropical Storm by Friday & Saturday.
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Just off the coast of Surigao Del Sur...prepares to make landfall as it intensify [2PM DEC 16: 8.7N 126.4E @ 85kph].
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies slightly as it approaches Northern Palawan [2PM DEC 17: 10.2N 120.2E @ 95kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Turning West to WSW while over the West Philippine Sea...exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) [2PM DEC 18: 11.1N 114.6E @ 100kph].
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - over water (Southeastern part of the Philippine Sea). Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 kph) will be expected along the developing CDO. (click here to know more about CDO). INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Southeastern part of the Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ Strong Winds (45-61 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Palau...approaching the East Coast of Mindanao. Rainy Conditions w/ light to moderate winds (<44 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 12-18HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 50 mm (low to medium rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 51 to 120 mm (high) along areas near the center of 27W (Pre-SENDONG). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) 
Now In Effect: EASTERN SAMAR, WESTERN SAMAR, LEYTE PROVINCES, CAMOTES IS., BOHOL, SURIGAO DEL NORTE, SURIGAO DEL SUR, SIARGAO IS., DINAGAT PROVINCE, AGUSAN PROVINCES, & MISAMIS ORIENTAL.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph beginning tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).
External Links for TS WASHI (SENDONG)
PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2711.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS WASHI (SENDONG)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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