Friday, August 25, 2017

Tropical Storm PAKHAR (JOLINA) Update Number 005


Tropical Storm PAKHAR (JOLINA) Update Number 005


Issued at: 6:30 PM PhT (10:30 GMT) Friday 25 August 2017
Next update: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Saturday, 26 August 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Storm PAKHAR (JOLINA) has slightly weakened as it interacts on the country's landmass. It is expected to make its landfall over the Coast of Northern Aurora tonight between 7-8 PM. Residents along its path are advised beforehand to take all  necessary precautions. Its circulation and rainbands are currently affecting Northern, Central, and Southern Luzon, Metropolitan Manila, and Northern Bicol Region.

The storm is expected to weaken further as it fully interacts with the rugged terrain of Northern Luzon. It is expected to continue moving northwestward within the next 24 hours at a forward speed of 29 km/hr and shall emerge over the West Philippine Sea by Saturday early morning (Aug 26). TS PAKHAR (JOLINA) is then forecast to slightly intensify before it makes landfall.

*TS PAKHAR (JOLINA) and its associated Trough will bring scattered to widespread rains and thunderstorms across the Rest of Luzon and Northern Bicol Region tonight.

Where is PAKHAR (JOLINA)?As of 05:00 PM PhT, August 25…0900 GMT.  The center was located over the northwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 15.9N 122.6E), about 124 km south of Palanan, Isabela or 144 km southeast of Santiago  City, Isabela.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center…Gustiness: 85 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving Northwest @ 17 kphtowards the Coastal Areas of Aurora.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along the Coast of Northern Aurora between 7-8pm on Friday (Aug 25), with a High Strike Probability of 85-95%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected in 24 hours):
Northern, Central, and Southern Luzon, Metropolitan Manila, and Northern Bicol Region – Tonight through Saturday (Aug 26).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Slightly intensifies as it emerges over the westernmost part of the Balintang Channel after crossing Northern Luzon, outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 295 km west-northwest of Laoag  City, Ilocos Norte [2PM Aug 26: 19.2N 118.0E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies into a Typhoon (TY) over the northernmost part of the West Philippine Sea, outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 230 km west-southwest of Hong Kong, China [2PM Aug 27: 21.5N 112.1E @ 120kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 215 km (Very Small/Midget)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 05:00 PM PhT Fri August 25, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 15.9º N Lat 122.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 163 km ENE of Palayan City, Nueva Ecija
Distance 2: 180 km ENE of Cabanatuan City, Nueva Ecija
Distance 3: 209 km SE of Tabuk City, Kalinga
Distance 4: 212 km SSE of Tuguegarao, Cagayan
Distance 5: 221 km NE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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