Saturday, August 26, 2017

Tropical Storm PAKHAR (JOLINA) Update Number 006


Tropical Storm PAKHAR (JOLINA) Update Number 006


Issued at: 12:15 AM PhT (16:15 GMT) Saturday 26 August 2017
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Saturday, 26 August 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Storm PAKHAR (JOLINA) has made landfall over the Coast of Northern Aurora at around 9 PM last night (Aug 25). It has slightly intensified as it traversed northwestward over the terrain of Northern Luzon. Its circulation and rainbands continues to affect the Northern, Central, and Southern Luzon.

It is expected to move west-northwest within the next 24 hours at a speed of 33 km/hr and shall emerge over the West Philippine Sea by Saturday morning (Aug 26). TS PAKHAR (JOLINA) is expected to intensify into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) by Saturday evening (Aug 26).

*TS PAKHAR (JOLINA) and its associated Trough will bring moderate to at times heavy scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the Rest of Luzon today.

Where is PAKHAR (JOLINA)?As of 11:00 PM PhT, August 25…1500 GMT.  The center was located over boundary of Isabela and Ifugao (near 16.4N 121.9E), about 51 km southeast of Santiago City, Isabela or 82 km south of Ilagan City, Isabela.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 75 kph near the center…Gustiness: 95 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving Northwest @ 16 kphtowards the West Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: None.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected in 24 hours):
Northern, Central, and Southern Luzon – Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SATURDAY EVENING: Intensifies into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it emerges over the northeastern part of the West Philippine Sea after crossing Northern Luzon, outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 383 km southeast of Hong Kong, China [8PM Aug 26: 19.7N 116.4E @ 95kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

SUNDAY EVENING: Makes its second landfall over Southwestern Guangdong, China with a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) category…about 405 km west of Hong Kong, China [8PM Aug 27: 21.8N 110.2E @ 95kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 300 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 600 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Fri August 25, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 16.4º N Lat 121.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 117 km NE of San Jose City, Nueva Ecija
Distance 2: 124 km NE of Palayan City, Nueva Ecija
Distance 3: 139 km E of Baguio City, Benguet
Distance 4: 150 km ENE of Urdaneta City, Pangasinan
Distance 5: 222 km NNE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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