Sunday, August 20, 2017

Tropical Depression 15W (ISANG) Update Number 001


Tropical Depression 15W (ISANG) Update Number 001





Issued at: 1:45 PM PhT (05:45 GMT) Sunday 20 August 2017
Next update: Sunday Evening, 20 August 2017
Current Status and Outlook

The disturbance (LPA 93W) over the North Philippine Sea, east of Extreme Northern Luzon has rapidly intensified into a weak Tropical Cyclone, now known as Tropical Depression (TD) 15W, with local name "ISANG." 

This depression is expected to move on a generally westerly track within the next 24 hours at a forward speed of 17 km/hr towards the Bashi Channel.  15W (ISANG) is forecast to become a Tropical Storm (TS) by Monday morning (Aug 21).

*TD 15W (ISANG) and its associated Trough will continue to bring isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across Central and Southern Luzon, Metro Manila,  Mindoro, Bicol Region, and Northern Visayas.

Where is 15W (ISANG)?As of 11:00 AM PhT, August 20…0300 GMT.  The center was located over the mid-central part of the North Philippine Sea (near 19.8N 128.5E), about 682 km east of Basco, Batanes or 703 km east of Itbayat, Batanes.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving West-Northwest @ 18 kphtowards Batanes-Taiwan Area
Potential Landfall Area(s):: None.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?*:: Batanes and Babuyan Group of Islands beginning Monday morning (Aug 21).

*Where moderate to heavy rains of 30 to 100 millimeters will be expected.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

MONDAY MORNING: Intensifies into a TS as it approaches the Batanes Island Group…about 327 km east of Basco, Batanes [8AM Aug 21: 20.0N 125.1E @ 75kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

TUESDAY MORNING: Continues to intensify as it passes very close to Northern Batanes…about 43 km northwest of Itbayat, Batanes [8AM Aug 22: 21.1N 121.6E @ 85kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 570 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sun August 20, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 19.8º N Lat 128.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 738 km ENE of Aparri, Cagayan 
Distance 2: 746 km ENE of Ilagan City, Isabela
Distance 3: 777 km ENE of Cauayan City, Isabela
Distance 4: 810 km ENE of Santiago City, Isabela
Distance 5: 981 km NE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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