Friday, August 25, 2017

Tropical Storm PAKHAR (JOLINA) Update Number 004


Tropical Storm PAKHAR (JOLINA) Update Number 004





Issued at: 12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Friday 25 August 2017
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Friday, 25 August 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Storm PAKHAR (JOLINA) has slightly gained strength as it starts to move west-northwestward during the past 6 hours.  Intense rainbands spreading across Bicol and Quezon Provinces.

This storm is expected to move west-northwest to northwestward within the next 24 hours at a speed of 23 km/hr and shall make landfall along the Coast of Aurora tonight. PAKHAR (JOLINA) is then forecast to become a Severe Tropical Storm (TS) before it makes landfall.

*TS PAKHAR (JOLINA) and its associated Trough will bring scattered to widespread rains and thunderstorms across the Rest of Luzon and Northern Visayas today.

Where is PAKHAR (JOLINA)?As of 11:00 AM PhT, August 25…0300 GMT.  The center was located over the northwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 15.3N 123.3E), about 167 km southeast of Casiguran, Aurora or 187 km north of Naga City, Camarines Sur.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 75 kph near the center…Gustiness: 95 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving West-Northwest @ 22 kphtowards the Coastal Areas of Aurora.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along the Coast of Northern Aurora between 8-9pm on Friday (Aug 25), with a High Strike Probability of 85-95%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?*:: Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte, Albay, Burias Island, Southern Luzon – Today.

::  Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Nueva Ecija, Ifugao, Quezon incl. Polillo Is.  – Today through Saturday (Aug 26).

*Where moderate, heavy to extreme rains of 30 to more than 100 millimeters will be expected.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SATURDAY MORNING: Emerges over the West Philippine Sea, just west of Ilocos Coastline, after crossing Northern Luzon. Weakens slightly…about 84 km west of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [8AM Aug 26: 18.2N 119.8E @ 75kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Becomes a Typhoon while over the northern part of the South China Sea, outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 178 km south of Hong Kong, China [8AM Aug 27: 20.8N 114.0E @ 130kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 580 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Fri August 25, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 15.3º N Lat 123.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 212 km SSE of Palanan, Isabela 
Distance 2: 226 km NE of Tayabas, Quezon
Distance 3: 242 km SE of Cauayan City, Isabela
Distance 4: 245 km N of Legazpi City, Albay
Distance 5: 254 km ENE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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