Friday, August 25, 2017

Tropical Storm PAKHAR (JOLINA) Update Number 003


Tropical Storm PAKHAR (JOLINA) Update Number 003





Issued at: 6:30 AM PhT (22:30 GMT) Friday 25 August 2017
Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Friday, 25 August 2017
Current Status and Outlook

16W (JOLINA) has intensified into Tropical Storm (TS) PAKHAR, named after a fresh water fish in Laos.  It has moved westward across the Central Philippine Sea and continues to threaten Northern & Central Luzon particularly Aurora-Isabela Provinces.  Its southern rainbands are currently affecting the Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas.

This storm is expected to move west-northwestward within the next 24 hours at a speed of 17 km/hr and shall make landfall along the Coastal Areas of Aurora and Isabela tonight. PAKHAR (JOLINA) is then forecast to become a Severe Tropical Storm (TS) before it makes landfall.

*TS PAKHAR (JOLINA) and its associated Trough will bring scattered to widespread rains and thunderstorms across the Rest of Luzon and Northern Visayas today.

Where is PAKHAR (JOLINA)?As of 5:00 AM PhT, August 25…2100 GMT.  The center was located over the northwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 15.0N 124.5E), about 160 km north-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or 207 km northeast of Naga City, Camarines Sur.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center…Gustiness: 85 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving Westward @ 22 kphtowards the Coastal Areas of Aurora and Isabela.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Over the Coast of Northern Aurora between 9-10pm on Friday (Aug 25), with a High Strike Probability of 80-90%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?*:: Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte, Albay, Polillo Islands – Today

*Where moderate to heavy rains of 30 to 100 millimeters will be expected.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: In the vicinity of Southern Isabela, as it Traverses Northern Luzon at Severe Tropical Storm (STS) classification…about 14 km south-southeast of Santiago City, Isabela [2AM Aug 26: 16.6N 121.6E @ 95kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Re-intensifies into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) while over the northern part of the South China Sea, outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 307 km southeast of Hong Kong, China [2AM Aug 27: 20.2N 115.9E @ 100kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day.. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 320 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 495 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Fri August 25, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 15.0º N Lat 124.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 221 km NNE of Legazpi City, Albay 
Distance 2: 194 km ENE of Daet, Camarines Norte
Distance 3: 308 km E of Infanta, Quezon
Distance 4: 295 km ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 5: 373 km E of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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