Thursday, August 24, 2017

Tropical Depression (JOLINA) Update Number 001


Tropical Depression (JOLINA) Update Number 001





Issued at: 7:30 PM PhT (11:30 GMT) Thursday 24 August 2017
Next update: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Friday, 25 August 2017
Current Status and Outlook

The rapidly organizing disturbance (LPA 96W) over the Central Philippine Sea, east of Central Luzon has intensified into a Tropical Depression (TD), locally known as "JOLINA."  This midget cyclone is now threatening Northern Luzon particularly Aurora and Isabela.

TD JOLINA is expected to move on a west-northwest track within the next 24 hours at a forward speed of 17 km/hr towards the Coastal Areas of Aurora and Isabela.  The cyclone is forecast to become a Tropical Storm (TS) tomorrow.

*TD JOLINA and its associated Trough will bring isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas tonight through Friday.

Where is JOLINA?As of 5:00 PM PhT, August 24…0900 GMT.  The center was located over the mid-western part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 15.6N 126.4E), about 396 km northeast of Legazpi City, Albay or 409 km east-northeast of Naga City, Camarines Sur.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving Westward @ 34 kphtowards the Coastal Areas of Aurora and Isabela.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Over the Eastern Coast of Isabela between 6-7pm on Friday (Aug 25), with a Medium Strike Probability of 50-60%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?*:: None.

*Where moderate to heavy rains of 30 to 100 millimeters will be expected.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies into a TS as it approaches the coastal areas of Aurora and Isabela…about 108 km southeast of Palanan, Isabela [2PM Aug 25: 16.4N 123.2E @ 65kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and re-intensifies into a TS after weakening temporarily due to its passage across the landmass of Northern Luzon…about 238 km west-northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [2PM Aug 26: 19.0N 118.5E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 320 km (Very Small/Midget)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Thu August 24, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 15.6º N Lat 126.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 387 km NE of Sorsogon, City 
Distance 2: 439 km NNE of Calbayog City, Western Samar
nce 3: 454 km ESE of Palanan, Isabela
Distance 4: 474 km NE of Masbate City, Masbate
Distance 5: 585 km ENE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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