Saturday, August 26, 2017

Tropical Storm PAKHAR (JOLINA) Update Number 007


Tropical Storm PAKHAR (JOLINA) Update Number 007



Issued at: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Saturday 26 August 2017
Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Saturday, 26 August 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Storm PAKHAR (JOLINA) has lost a little bit of strength while crossing the mountainous terrain of Northern Luzon…now in the vicinity of Ifugao-Mountain Province Border.  Its circulation and rainbands continues to affect the Northern and Central Luzon including Southern Tagalog Provinces.

This storm is expected to move northwestward for the next 24 hours at a faster speed of 37 km/hr, crossing Abra and Ilocos Sur, and shall emerge over the West Philippine Sea before noon today. TS PAKHAR (JOLINA) will eventually move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this afternoon, and could become a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) by early Sunday morning (Aug 27).

*TS PAKHAR (JOLINA) together with its associated Trough and the Southwesterly Surface Windflow will continue to bring "on-and-off" rains and thunderstorms across the Rest of Luzon today.

Where is PAKHAR (JOLINA)?As of 5:00 AM PhT, August 26…2100 GMT.  The center was located along  the Ifugao-Mountain Province Boundary (near 17.0N 120.9E), about 72 km northeast of San Fernando City, La Union or 74 km north-northeast of Baguio City, Benguet.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center…Gustiness: 85 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving West-Northwest @ 21 kphtowards Abra-Ilocos Sur Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Currently Overland (in Northern Luzon).
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected in 24 hours):
Northern and Central Luzon including Southern Tagalog Provinces – Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
1-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it moves across the northern part of the South China Sea, outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and approaching Southern China…about 175 km south-southeast of Hong Kong, China [2AM Aug 27: 21.0N 114.9E @ 95kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 500 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sat August 26, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 17.0º N Lat 120.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 84 km SE of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur
Distance 2: 111 km SW of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 3: 119 km W of Ilagan City, Isabela
Distance 4: 133 km N of San Jose City, Nueva Ecija
Distance 5: 270 km N of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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