Friday, August 25, 2017

Tropical Depression 16W (JOLINA) Update Number 002


Tropical Depression 16W (JOLINA) Update Number 002


Issued at: 12:00 AM PhT (16:00 GMT) Friday 25 August 2017
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Friday, 25 August 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression 16W (JOLINA) has slightly intensified in the past 6 hours as it jogged westward towards the northwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea. Its circulation and rainbands are currently affecting the Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas.

TD JOLINA is expected to move west-northwest within the next 24 hours at a speed of 17 km/hr towards the Coastal Areas of Aurora and Isabela. It is expected to become a Tropical Storm (TS) this morning (Aug 25).

*TD JOLINA and its associated Trough will provide light to at times moderate scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas today.

Where is 16W (JOLINA)?As of 11:00 PM PhT, August 24…1500 GMT.  The center was located over the northwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 15.7N 125.6E), about 338 km northeast of Tabaco City, Albay or 346 km northeast of Iriga City, Camarines Sur.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving Westward @ 14 kphtowards the Coastal Areas of Aurora and Isabela.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Over the Southeastern Coast of Isabela between 9-10pm on Friday (Aug 25), with a Medium Strike Probability of 50-60%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?*:: Bicol Region – Today

*Where moderate to heavy rains of 30 to 100 millimeters will be expected.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY EVENING: Intensifies into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it approaches the coastal areas of Aurora and Isabela…about 55 km south of Palanan, Isabela [8PM Aug 25: 16.5N 122.4E @ 95kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

SATURDAY EVENING: Re-intensifies into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 328 km west-northwest of Laoag  City, Ilocos Norte [8PM Aug 26: 19.5N 117.8E @ 100kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 450 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 985 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Thu August 24, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 15.7º N Lat 125.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 348 km NE of Legazpi City, Albay 
Distance 2: 370 km ESE of Palanan, Isabela
Distance 3: 418 km NNE of Calbayog City, Samar
Distance 4: 432 km NNE of Masbate City, Masbate
Distance 5: 503 km ENE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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