Sunday, August 20, 2017

Tropical Depression 15W (ISANG) Update Number 002


Tropical Depression 15W (ISANG) Update Number 002


Issued at: 6:30 PM PhT (10:30 GMT) Sunday 20 August 2017
Next update: Monday Early Morning, 21 August 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression ISANG has maintained its intensity as it moved northwest in the past 6 hours over the central part of the North Philippine Sea. 

The depression is expected to move west within the next 24 hours at a speed of 18 km/hr towards the Bashi Channel. 15W (ISANG) is expected to become a Tropical Storm (TS) by Monday afternoon (Aug 21).

*TD 15W (ISANG) and its associated Trough will continue to bring light to moderate scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across Extreme Northern, Northeastern, Central, and Southern Luzon, Metro Manila,  Mindoro, Bicol Region, and Northern Visayas.

Where is 15W (ISANG)?As of 5:00 PM PhT, August 20…0900 GMT. The center was located over the central part of the North Philippine Sea (near 20.5N 128.0E), about 625 km east of Basco, Batanes or 652 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving Northwest @ 16 kphtowards Batanes-Taiwan Area
Potential Landfall Area(s):: None.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?*:: Batanes and Babuyan Group of Islands beginning Monday afternoon (Aug 21).

*Where moderate to heavy rains of 30 to 100 millimeters will be expected.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

MONDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies into a tropical storm (TS) as it approaches the Batanes Island Group…about 255 km east of Basco, Batanes [2PM Aug 21: 20.0N 124.4E @ 75kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies into a severe tropical storm (STS) over the southern part of Taiwan…about 104 km south of Kaohsiung, Taiwan [2PM Aug 22: 21.7N 120.4E @ 95kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 300 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 334 km (Very Small/Midget)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sun August 20, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 20.5º N Lat 128.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 706 km NE of Palanan, Isabela
Distance 2: 733 km ENE of Tuguegarao  City, Cagayan
Distance 3: 755 km ESE of Taitung , Taiwan
Distance 4: 771 km ENE of Tabuk City, Kalinga
Distance 5: 987 km NE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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