for Tuesday, 24 August 2010 [1:35 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tue August 24 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TY MINDULLE (06W).
MINDULLE (06W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 90 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 105 kph
+ Vietnam (NCHMF/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
TYPHOON MINDULLE [06W/1005]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 006
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Tue 24 August 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #008/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Latest Dvorak satellite analysis revealed that MINDULLE (06W) has become a Category 1 Typhoon...its core (eye & eyewall) inching closer to the southern coast of Northern Vietnam. Landfall likely late this afternoon or early tonight.
Residents and visitors along Hainan Island, Northern Vietnam and Southwestern China should closely monitor the progress of MINDULLE (06W).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 36 hours)*
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Tue Aug 24 2010
Location of Eye: 18.6º N Lat 106.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 105 km (58 nm) ESE of N.Vietnam's Coast
Distance 2: 280 km (150 nm) SSE of Hanoi, Vietnam
Distance 3: 230 km (125 nm) WSW of Dongfang, Hainan
Distance 4: 255 km (137 nm) NNW of Hue, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 240 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Present Movement: WNW @ 22 kph (12 kts)
Towards: Northern Vietnam
Size (in Diameter): 520 km (280 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft (4.5 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Tue Aug 24
TY MINDULLE expected to maintain its WNW movement throughout the forecast and will dissipate over Vietnam-Laos Area tomorrow evening. The core (Eye & Eyewall) will still slightly intensify prior in making landfall over the southern portion of Northern Vietnam late this afternoon or early tonight [8PM AUG 24: 19.1N 105.6E @ 110kph], and will cross the mountainous terrain of Northern Vietnam later tonight. MINDULLE will be over the Vietnam-Laos Border tomorrow morning [8AM AUG 25: 19.7N 104.7E @ 65kph...8PM AUG 25: 20.0N 103.8E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
MINDULLE's strong circulation now displays a cloud-filled EYE w/ an intense EyeWall, just near the coast of North-Central Vietnam. Tropical Storm force winds reaching 110 kph with higher gusts can be expected along its outer-northern & eastern portions of the eyewall and its inner bands, especially near the coastal areas of North-Central Vietnam (those towns north of Hue City) & the southern portion of the Gulf of Tonkin. Meanwhile, its outer bands (w/ winds of up to 65 kph) are currently affecting the rest of Northern and Central Vietnam, and portions of Laos and Hainan Island. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 240 mm (heavy) just to the South & SSW of Mindulle's center or along the coast of North-Central Vietnam. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH
Tropical Disturbance 96W (LPA/1010 MB) has been observed developing over the Philippine Sea, about 900 km ENE of Bicol Region (14.5N 132.5E)...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 25 kph near the center...Quasi-Stationary. This system has a 30% chance of becoming a Tropical Cyclone w/in the next 24 to 48 hours.
CURRENT ITCZ INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread afternoon or evening rains & thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: MOST PARTS OF THE PHILIPPINES. Light South, SSW or SE winds (not in excess of 30 kph) can be expected along these areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TY MINDULLE (06W)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0610.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 36 hrs Ahead
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
*SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). OVERALL, IMAGERY SHOWS DECREASING
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AFTER A SHORT-LIVED PERIOD OF
STRENGTHENING AND A DEVELOPING EYE. A 232155Z SSMI 37 GHZ IMAGE
CONTINUES TO DEPICT A TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LLCC WITH A CLEAR MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE; THE 85 GHZ IMAGERY, HOWEVER, SHOWS AN OBLONG MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE WITH DEEP CONVECTION LIMITED OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT.
THIS LACK OF SUSTAINED INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY
DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND THE NEGLIGIBLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THERE
IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION BASED ON THE
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE AVERAGE OF
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES.
RJTD REMAINS AT 45 KNOTS BUT WAS ASSESSED AS TOO LOW CONSIDERING
THE NEAR EYE AND WELL-ORGANIZED MICROWAVE SIGNATURE...(more)
>> MINDULLE, meaning: A Korean name for Dandelion Flower. Name contributed by: DPR Korea.
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
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RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TY MINDULLE (06W)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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