for Tuesday, 31 August 2010 [7:19 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun August 29 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web & e-mail advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS LIONROCK (FLORITA).
LIONROCK (FLORITA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Vietnam (NCHMF/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 kph
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 90 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM LIONROCK [FLORITA/07W/1006]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 012
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Tue 31 August 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #15/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
LIONROCK (FLORITA) has strengthened while drifting SSE across the South China Sea...interaction between TS NAMTHEUN (located near Northern Taiwan) continues.
Residents and visitors along NW Luzon, Southern China particularly Guangdong Province including Hong Kong should closely monitor the progress of LIONROCK.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 4 days)*
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Tue Aug 31 2010
Location of Center: 20.1º N Lat 117.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 380 km (205 nm) NW of Laoag City, PH
Distance 2: 380 km (205 nm) SSE of Shantou, China
Distance 3: 430 km (233 nm) SE of Hong Kong
Distance 4: 460 km (248 nm) WSW of Basco, Batanes, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Present Movement: SSE @ 05 kph (03 kts)
Towards: South China Sea
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 250 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 335 km (180 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 17 ft (5.1 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Tue Aug 31
TS LIONROCK is expected to resume tracking NE for the next 48 hours, before turning north to WNW...likely to become a minimal Category 1 Typhoon early tomorrow morning [2AM SEP 01: 20.9N 117.9E @ 120kph]. The storm will be near to the west coast of Taiwan on Thursday early morning [2AM SEP 02: 22.8N 119.1E @ 120kph]. On this forecast track, LIONROCK will make a sudden turn to the NW to WNW in the direction of Eastern Guangdong.
Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 100 km/hr (55 kts) with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 120 kilometers (65 nautical miles) from the center.
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Making landfall over the coast of Eastern Guangdong as a weakened Tropical Storm [2AM SEP 03: 24.4N 118.3E @ 95kph].
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Just a remnant low pressure...dissipating over the mountainous terrain of Guangdong Province [2AM SEP 04: 25.3N 115.9E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
LIONROCK's strong circulation becoming more compact while remaining along the warm waters of the South China Sea. If the forecast track goes well, Tropical Storm Force Winds are expected to reach the westtern coast of Western Taiwan early Thursday...and over Eastern Guangdong Thursday afternoon (Sep 02). Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 250 mm (heavy) near the center of LIONROCK. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.
CURRENT SOUTHWEST MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing on-&-off showers, rains & thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: WESTERN & NORTHERN LUZON including METRO MANILA, PARTS OF WESTERN VISAYAS, WESTERN MINDANAO AND BATANES-CALAYAN-BABUYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS. Light to moderate SW winds (not in excess of 40 kph) can be expected.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TS LIONROCK (FLORITA)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0710.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 96 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BEEN RELOCATED SOUTHEAST
OF THE PREVIOUS WARNING POSITION BASED ON RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 301618Z TRMM PASS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF 55 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A PGTW DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATE OF 3.5 AND
STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN THE RECENT TRMM IMAGE. THE RELOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM
DOES NOT EFFECT THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. TS 07W IS STILL EXPECTED
TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 AS ITS CIRCULATION
INTERACTS WITH THAT OF TS 09W. LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR MARGINAL INTENSIFICATION DURING THIS
PERIOD. THERAFTER, SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE
NORTH OF TS 07W AND TURN THE SYSTEM TOWARD LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN
CHINA...(more)
>> LIONROCK, meaning: A famous peak in Hong Kong, overlooking Kowloon Bay. Name contributed by: Hong Kong.
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS LIONROCK (FLORITA)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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