for Tuesday, 24 August 2010 [8:17 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tue August 24 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS MINDULLE (06W).
MINDULLE (06W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 90 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 105 kph
+ Vietnam (NCHMF/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM MINDULLE [06W/1005]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 005
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Tue 24 August 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #007/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
MINDULLE (06W) strengthening rapidly, almost a Typhoon...approaching the coast of Northern Vietnam. Landfall possible late this afternoon or tonight.
Residents and visitors along Hainan Island, Northern Vietnam and Southwestern China should closely monitor the progress of MINDULLE (06W).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)*
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Tue Aug 24 2010
Location of Eye: 18.1º N Lat 107.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 155 km (83 nm) SW of Dongfang, Hainan
Distance 2: 210 km (113 nm) North of Hue, Vietnam
Distance 3: 205 km (110 nm) West of Sanya, Hainan
Distance 4: 350 km (190 nm) SSE of Hanoi, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 110 kph (60 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 140 kph (70 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 200 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Present Movement: NW @ 28 kph (15 kts)
Towards: Northern Vietnam
Size (in Diameter): 555 km (300 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft (4.5 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-4 feet [0-1.2 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Tue Aug 24
TS MINDULLE expected to maintain its NW movement for the next 2 days and is likely to reach Typhoon strength before making landfall over the coast of Northern Vietnam, south of Hanoi City tonight or early tomorrow morning [2PM AUG 24: 18.2N 107.2E @ 110kph...2AM AUG 25: 19.1N 106.0E @ 100kph]. Its center is expected to traverse the southern part of Northern Vietnam tomorrow morning or afternoon w/ dissipating wind speeds [2PM AUG 25: 19.5N 105.2E @ 75kph]...and will completely dissipate tomorrow evening or early Thursday morning [2AM AUG 26: 19.8N 104.6E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
MINDULLE's circulation has developed an Eyewall w/ a possible cloud-filled Eye. Tropical Storm force winds reaching 100 kph with higher gusts can be expected along its developing eyewall and inner bands, especially along North-Central Vietnam (towns north of Hue City) and western portions of Hainan Island. Meanwhile, the outer bands continues to spread across the whole of Vietnam, rest of Hainan Island and portions of Western Guangdong (China). Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 200 mm (heavy) just to the south of Mindulle's center or along the coast of Central Vietnam. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.
CURRENT ITCZ INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread rains can be expected along the following affected areas: MOST PARTS OF THE PHILIPPINES. Light South, SSW or SE winds (not in excess of 30 kph) can be expected along these areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TS MINDULLE (06W)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0610.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 48 hrs Ahead
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
*A 231805Z AMSU 89H GHZ IMAGE ALSO SUPPORTS THE RECENT
IMPROVING TREND WITH A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE EVIDENT. THIS IMAGE
ANCHORS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE 23/12Z
POSITION WAS SHIFTED 35 NM NORTHEAST OF THE 23/12Z WARNING POSITION
BASED ON A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE CLEARLY EVIDENT IN A 231035Z
CORIOLIS 37 GHZ IMAGE. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WAS ALSO SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY BUT IS PARALLEL TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH NOGAPS AND GFDN INDICATING A MORE REALISTIC
NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IN LINE WITH UPPER AIR
DATA SHOWING DEEP, STRONG EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. BASED
ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY, TS 06W HAS STRENGTHENED AND IS
FORECAST TO PEAK AT 60-65 KNOTS PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL OVER
VIETNAM. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU
48...(more)
>> MINDULLE, meaning: A Korean name for Dandelion Flower. Name contributed by: DPR Korea.
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS MINDULLE (06W)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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