for Monday, 23 August 2010 [6:52 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Mon August 23 2010):
New changes on the FORECAST OUTLOOK, adding EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK. Meanwhile, we are currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS MINDULLE (06W).
MINDULLE (06W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 kph
+ Vietnam (NCHMF/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM MINDULLE [06W/1005]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 004
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Mon 23 August 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #005/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
MINDULLE (06W) strengthening near the coast of Central Vietnam...now turning west-northwestward. Heavy rains pouring into Central Vietnam.
Residents and visitors along Hainan Island, Central & Northern Vietnam and Southwestern China should closely monitor the progress of 06W (UNNAMED).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 days)*
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Mon Aug 23 2010
Location of Center: 16.5º N Lat 109.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 125 km (67 nm) ENE of Da Nang, Vietnam
Distance 2: 180 km (97 nm) East of Hue, Vietnam
Distance 3: 190 km (103 nm) South of Sanya, Hainan
Distance 4: 295 km (160 nm) SSE of Dongfang, Hainan
Distance 5: 620 km (335 nm) SSE of Hanoi, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 230 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Present Movement: WNW @ 20 kph (11 kts)
Towards: Hainan-Northern Vietnam Area
Size (in Diameter): 555 km (300 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 ft (3.9 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-4 feet [0-1.2 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Mon Aug 23
TS MINDULLE's forecast outlook has changed, due to the strengthening of the subtropical high pressure ridge to the north...now expected to maintain its WNW movement for the next two days and will gain more strength as it moves into the warm coastal waters of Central Vietnam tonight until tomorrow afternoon [2AM AUG 24: 16.8N 108.2E @ 85kph...2PM AUG 24: 17.6N 106.8E @ 85kph]. The center will then make landfall over Central Vietnam tomorrow evening and will start losing strength thru early Wednesday morning upon crossing the rugged terrain of Vietnam [2AM AUG 25: 18.3N 105.8E @ 75kph]. By Wednesday afternoon, MINDULLE will be close to the Vietnam-Laos Border as it weakens further [2PM AUG 25: 18.9N 105.0E @ 65kph].
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Downgraded into TD then eventually into an Area of Low Pressure off Laos [2PM AUG 26: 19.4N 103.8E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
MINDULLE's strong circulation continues to spin near the coast of Central Vietnam, with its outer bands spreading across the whole of Vietnam, Hainan Island and portions of Western Guangdong (China). Gale-force winds reaching 65 kph with higher gusts can be expected along its inner bands especially along the coast of Central Vietnam (near the area of Da Nang and Hue Cities). Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 150 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 230 mm (heavy) just to the south of Mindulle's center or along the coast of Central Vietnam. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.
CURRENT ITCZ INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread rains can be expected along the following affected areas: BICOL REGION & THE REST OF THE VISAYAS. Light South, SSW or SE winds (not in excess of 25 kph) can be expected along these areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TS MINDULLE (06W)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0610.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 72 hrs Ahead
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
*RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A
230440Z 37 GHZ TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE POSTION BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED TRMM PASS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS AND A 230242Z ASCAT PASS
INDICATING 35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS IN THE SYSTEM CENTER. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW, PREVIOUSLY CAUSING
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, HAS FILLED
AND MOVED TO THE NORTH ALLOWING FOR INCREASED CONVECTION AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ANIMATED MSI INDICATES THE DEEP CONVECTION ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY AS THE
LOW LEVEL INFLOW BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
THE CENTRAL VIETNAM COAST. TS MINDULLE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
STORM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK
THROUGH AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS AND GFDN, WHICH
RECURVE THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD INTO THE RIDGE. THIS FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY WEST OF CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE MODEL
ERRORS...(more)
>> MINDULLE, meaning: A Korean name for Dandelion Flower. Name contributed by: DPR Korea.
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS MINDULLE (06W)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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