Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD 96W [ESTER]

for Saturday, 07 August 2010 [6:36 PM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sat August 07 2010):

Now issuing 6-hrly web advisiories (except 12 AM PhT) on the newly-developed TD 96W (ESTER).

96W (ESTER) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 35 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 35 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96W [ESTER]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 002
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Sat 07 August 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

Tropical Depression 96W (ESTER) standstill east of Batanes...its center remains north of its intense rain convection. Monsoon rains (aka. "Habagat") continues to prevail across Luzon & Western Visayas including Palawan & Metro Manila.

*Residents and visitors along Taiwan, Ryukyu-Yaeyama Islands, Cagayan, Calayan-Babuyan-Batanes & Ilocos Provinces should closely monitor the progress of 96W (ESTER).

*Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

Current Storm Information

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Fri Jul 23 2010
Location of Center: 20.7º N Lat 124.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 270 km (145 nm) East of Basco, Batanes
Distance 2: 350 km (190 nm) ENE of Calayan Island
Distance 3: 395 km (213 nm) NE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 4: 475 km (255 nm) SE of Hualien, Taiwan
Distance 5: 735 km (397 nm) SW of Okinawa, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 200 mm [Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Present Movement: Quasi-Stationary
Towards: Philippine Sea
Size (in Diameter): 400 km (215 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 8 ft (2.4 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
T2K TrackMap #002 (for Public): 6 PM PhT Sat Aug 07

+ Forecast Outlook: 96W is expected to remain quasi-stationary for the next 6 hours and then track NW to NNW slowly for the next 24 hours in the direction of Taiwan's Eastern Coast. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects & Hazards: 96W's circulation is currently over the Northern Philippine Sea and continues to pull the Southwest Monsoon across the Philippines. Its outer bands continues to affect NE Luzon - moderate to strong winds of up to 45 kph w/ occasional rains can be expected along Calayan Islands, Balintang Channel, Batanes & Babuyan Group, Coastal Northern Cagayan & Ilocos Norte. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing moderate to heavy rains can be expected along the following affected areas: NORTHERN-CENTRAL-WESTERN LUZON, METRO MANILA, PALAWAN, CALAMIAN GROUP, MINDORO, WESTERN VISAYAS, MASBATE & WESTERN BICOL. Light to moderate SW winds (not in excess of 50 kph) can be expected along these areas. Large ocean waves of 7 to 8 feet along the beach-front areas of the affected areas are likely to occur today. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

Weak Tropical Disturbance 98W (LPA/1010 MB) drifting WNW across the South China Sea, closer to Hainan Island. Located near lat 18.0N lon 113.0E...or about 805 km West of Laoag City...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 25 kph near the center...moving WNW @ 20 kph. This system has a 30% chance of becoming a Tropical Cyclone w/in the next 24 to 48 hours.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: CAGAYAN, APAYAO, KALINGA, ABRA, ILOCOS NORTE, ILOCOS SUR, NORTHERN ISABELA, BATANES-BABUYAN-CALAYAN ISLANDS.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight & tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.

External Links for TD 96W (ESTER)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time

JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists):
*N/A...(more)
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RECENT TYPHOON2000 TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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NOTE:

* - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TD 96W (ESTER)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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