Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS DIANMU [ESTER] just passed west of Okinawa Island... (Update #07)

for Monday, 09 August 2010 [12:10 PM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Mon August 09 2010):

New Tropical Disturbance 99W (LPA) forming WSW of Yap Island...will be closely monitored for further developments - details below. Currently issuing 6-hrly advisiories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS DIANMU (ESTER).

DIANMU (ESTER) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 90 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 kph

TROPICAL STORM DIANMU [ESTER/05W/1004]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 007
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Mon 09 August 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #005/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

Tropical Storm DIANMU (ESTER) now with 75-km/hr winds...accelerating further Northward...has passed to the west of Okinawa. SW Monsoon (Habagat) starts retreating over the South China Sea...slightly improved weather across portions of Western Luzon including Metro Manila.

*Residents and visitors along Yaeyama-Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands, South Korea including Cheju Island should closely monitor the progress of DIANMU (ESTER).

*Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

Current Storm Information

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Mon Aug 09 2010
Location of Center: 26.7º N Lat 125.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 240 km (130 nm) West of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 275 km (148 nm) NNE of Ishigaki, Japan
Distance 3: 445 km (240 nm) ENE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 4: 760 km (410 nm) SSW of Cheju Is., S.Korea
Distance 5: 780 km (422 nm) NNE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 200 mm [Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Present Movement: North @ 24 kph (13 kts)
Towards: South Korea
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) / Avg/Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 ft (3.9 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-4 feet [0-1.2 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Mon Aug 09

+ Forecast Outlook: DIANMU is expected to continue tracking Northward within the next 2 days. It will approach the South Korean Resort island of Cheju on Wednesday morning, passing just west of the island [8AM AUG 11: 33.7N 125.6E @ 75kph]. The 3 to 4-Day Long-Range Forecast Track shows the system weakening as it makes landfall over the Southwestern Coast of South Korea Wednesday afternoon, and will cross South Korea through Wednesday evening, passing very close to Taegu City. DIANMU will move out into the Sea of Japan by Thursday morning [8AM AUG 12: 36.9N 130.0E @ 65kph]. Upon moving across the Sea of Japan eastward, DIANMU will become an Extratropical Cyclone (ET) on Friday morning [8AM AUG 13: 39.0N 136.2E @ 55kph]. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects & Hazards: DIANMU's improving circulation continues to affect the Yaeyama and Okinawa-Ryukyu Island Chains. Intense rain and wind convection remains to the South & Eastern quadrants of the tropical storm. Strong winds of up to 85 kph-gust can be expected along these island chains. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 200 mm (heavy) situated south of DIANMU's center. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing light to moderate to sometimes heavy rains can be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN & NW LUZON including portions of METRO MANILA, LUBANG ISLAND & CALAMIAN GROUP OF ISLANDS, & PALAWAN. Moderate to strong SW winds (not in excess of 50 kph) can be expected along these areas. Large ocean waves of 7 to 8 feet along the beach-front areas of the affected areas are likely to occur today. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

The new, developing Tropical Disturbance 99W (LPA/1010 MB) WSW of the Pacific island of Yap, has weakened slightly, as it tracks WNW @ 19 kph. Located near lat 9.0N lon 137.0E...or about 1,185 km East of Northern Mindanao, Philippines...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 25 kph near the center. This system has a 40% chance of becoming a Tropical Cyclone w/in the next 24 to 48 hours.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

External Links for TS DIANMU (ESTER)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0510.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 96 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02

JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) MON 09 AUGUST POSITION: 25.6N 125.6E.
*RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 082216Z SSMIS 37H GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A MAJORITY OF
THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
OBSERVATIONS FROM MIYAKOJIMA ISLAND (MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 992 MB WITH
WESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS SUSTAINED) AND A RADAR LOOP
FROM JAPAN REVEAL THAT THE SYSTEM PASSED SLIGHTY EAST OF THE ISLAND
BETWEEN 081800Z AND 082200Z. THESE OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS MICROWAVE
AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRM THE ASYMETRIC WIND
DISTRIBUTION OF TS 05W. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS. HOWEVER,
STRONGER GRADIENT WINDS ARE EVIDENT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH OF TS 05W
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, BUT GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFLUENT REGION SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM...(more)

>> DIANMU, meaning: Mother of lightning. Name contributed by: China.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):

> Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

* - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS DIANMU (ESTER)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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