for Sunday, 29 August 2010 [6:45 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun August 29 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS LIONROCK (FLORITA).
LIONROCK (FLORITA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Vietnam (NCHMF/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 kph
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM LIONROCK [FLORITA/07W/1006]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 006
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sun 29 August 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #07/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
07W (FLORITA) upgraded to Tropical Storm LIONROCK (named after a peak in Hong Kong, which overlooks Kowloon Peninsula)...threatens Hong Kong-Eastern Guangdong Area.
Residents and visitors along Southern China particularly Guangdong Province including Hong Kong should closely monitor the progress of LIONROCK.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 4 days)*
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Sun Aug 29 2010
Location of Center: 19.7º N Lat 115.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 325 km (175 nm) SE of Hong Kong
Distance 2: 420 km (227 nm) SSW of Shantou, China
Distance 3: 530 km (285 nm) WNW of Laoag City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 13 kph
Towards: Hong Kong-Eastern Guangdong Area
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 230 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 370 km (200 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 ft (3.9 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-4 feet [0-1.2 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Sun Aug 29
TS LIONROCK is expected to continue tracking NNW across the northern part of the South China Sea for the next 2 days and will strengthen rapidly to tonight until Monday [2AM AUG 30: 21.2N 115.8E @ 95kph]. The center will be just off the coast of Eastern Guangdong, or just to the east of Hong Kong early Tuesday morning [2AM AUG 31: 22.7N 115.2E @ 100kph]. On this forecast track, the center of LIONROCK will make landfall over Eastern Guangdong before sunrise on Tuesday.
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Rapidly weakening overland as it traverses the mountainous terrain of Guangdong Province [2AM SEP 01: 23.7N 114.1E @ 65kph].
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Dissipated off Northern Guangdong...just a remnant Low. [2AM SEP 02: 24.2N 112.5E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
LIONROCK's circulation continues to improve while over the northern part of the South China Se...not yet affecting any land areas at this time. Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-85 km/hr) expected to reach Eastern Guangdong beginning tomorrow morning Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 230 mm (heavy) near the center of LIONROCK. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SOUTHWEST MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with on-&-off showers or rains can be expected along these following affected areas: WESTERN LUZON (ILOCOS REGION DOWN TO ZAMBALES). Light to moderate SW winds (not in excess of 35 kph) can be expected. Meanwhile, ITCZ affecting most parts Mindanao.
Tropical Disturbance 98W (LPA/1010 MB) likely to become a Tropical Cyclone this morning, located about 1,580 km East of Batanes (20.7N 137.2E)...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 40 kph near the center...moving NW @ 22 kph. The 48-hr. Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential for 98W has increased to 90% (High Chance).
New Tropical Disturbance 92W (LPA/1008 MB) has been developing near the East Coast of Taiwan, located about 390 km North of Batanes (23.9N 122.3E)...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph near the center...barely moving at this time. The 48-hr. Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential for 92W is at 40% (Medium Chance).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TS LIONROCK (FLORITA)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0710.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 96 hrs Ahead
*ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED TO 5-10 KNOTS WITH IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ENHANCED BY A TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON A 281346Z ASCAT IMAGE AND RECENT FIXES WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM
PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. TS 07W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
TO NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 WHEN IT WILL MAKE LANDFALL. THEN THE
SYSTEM SHOULD TURN WESTWARD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS (NOGAPS,
UKMO,GFDN, JGSM, ECMEF, WBAR AND GFS) DIVERGE AFTER TAU 24. THIS FORECAST
FAVORS THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE. MODEL ANALYSIS OF
ECMWF AND GFS, WHICH SHOW A SHARP NORTHEASTWARD TURN TOWARD TAIWAN,
INDICATE INTERACTION WITH A LOW DEVELOPING EAST OF TAIWAN. THIS
INTERACTION APPEARS TO BE EXCESSIVE DUE TO POOR INITIALIZATION OF
TS 07W WHICH IS DEPICTED TOO WEAK AND ROUGHLY EQUIVALENT IN STRENGTH
TO THE TAIWAN LOW. THE UKMO MODEL IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
ENVELOPE AND DEPICTS A SHARPER TURN WESTWARD SOUTH OF HONG KONG.
OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK DUE TO THE LARGE
MODEL SPREAD WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE WESTWARD TURN
AS WELL AS POSSIBLE (BUT UNLIKELY) INTERACTION WITH THE TAIWAN LOW.
THIS FORECAST IS POSITIONED WEST OF CONSENSUS. TS 07W IS FORECAST
TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 55-60 KNOTS AND SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER LAND
BY TAU 96...(more)
>> LIONROCK, meaning: A famous peak in Hong Kong, overlooking Kowloon Bay. Name contributed by: Hong Kong.
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS LIONROCK (FLORITA)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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