for Monday, 30 August 2010 [6:30 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun August 29 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web & e-mail advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS LIONROCK (FLORITA).
LIONROCK (FLORITA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Vietnam (NCHMF/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 kph
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 70 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM LIONROCK [FLORITA/07W/1006]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 009
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Mon 30 August 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #11/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
LIONROCK (FLORITA) almost not moving over the northern part of the South China Sea, as it drifted NE during the past 12 hours.
Residents and visitors along Southern China particularly Guangdong Province including Hong Kong should closely monitor the progress of LIONROCK.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 days)*
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Mon Aug 30 2010
Location of Center: 20.9º N Lat 116.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 280 km (150 nm) South of Shantou, China
Distance 2: 325 km (175 nm) ESE of Hong Kong
Distance 3: 520 km (280 nm) WNW of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Present Movement: NNE @ 05 kph (03 kts)
Towards: Eastern Guangdong
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 240 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 370 km (200 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 ft (4.2 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Mon Aug 30
TS LIONROCK is expected to drift slowly NNE for the next 24 hours, strengthening into a severe tropical storm early Tuesday morning [2AM AUG 31: 21.7N 117.1E @ 95kph]. By early Wednesday morning, LIONROCK will then start to lose strength as it turns northward, closer to the coast of Eastern Guangdong [2AM SEP 01: 22.9N 117.0E @ 85kph]. On this forecast track, the storm will make landfall over Eastern Guangdong, just south of Shantou City around midday Wednesday.
Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 75 km/hr (40 kts) with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 km/hr) extend outward up to 95 kilometers (50 nautical miles) from the center.
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Moving overland across Guangdong Province just as a remnant low pressure...dissipated [2AM SEP 02: 23.9N 115.8E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
LIONROCK's circulation remains well over the northern part of the South China Sea...Northern outermost rainbands just lingering along the southern shores of Eastern Guangdong. Tropical Storm Force Winds expected to reach Eastern Guangdong by early Wednesday morning (Sep 01). Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 250 mm (heavy) near the center of LIONROCK. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SOUTHWEST MONSOON INTENSITY: WEAK >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with some chance of on-&-off showers or rains can be expected along these following affected areas: WESTERN LUZON (ILOCOS REGION DOWN TO ZAMBALES) AND BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS. Light to moderate SW winds (not in excess of 35 kph) can be expected. Meanwhile, ITCZ affecting most parts Mindanao.
Tropical Disturbance 92W (LPA/1007 MB) becoming better organized to the NE of Taiwan, now located about 175 km NE of Taipei, Taiwan (25.8N 123.1E)...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 35 kph near the center...barely moving at this moment. The 48-hr. Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential for 92W is now at 80% (High Chance).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TS LIONROCK (FLORITA)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0710.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 72 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE
THAT THE SYSTEM IS CONSOLIDATING SLOWLY AS VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR DECREASES. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 291802Z
AMSR-E 36H IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. TS 07W APPEARS TO BE
INTERACTING WITH THE TROPICAL LOW LOCATED ABOUT 480 NM
NORTHEAST OF TAIWAN. THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES A
SLOW NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THEN TURN WESTWARD OVER
LAND WITH DISSIPATION NEAR TAU 72...(more)
>> LIONROCK, meaning: A famous peak in Hong Kong, overlooking Kowloon Bay. Name contributed by: Hong Kong.
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS LIONROCK (FLORITA)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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