for Friday, 27 August 2010 [6:48 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri August 27 2010):
Now issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TD 07W (FLORITA).
07W (FLORITA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Vietnam (NCHMF/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W [FLORITA]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 001
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Fri 27 August 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #01/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Tropical Depression 07W (FLORITA) rapidly developed over the South China Sea...drifting WNW...not a threat to the Philippines.
Residents and visitors along Western Luzon, Vietnam and Southern China should closely monitor the progress of 07W (FLORITA).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Fri Aug 27 2010
Location of Center: 15.3º N Lat 117.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 290 km (195 nm) West of Iba, Zambales
Distance 2: 330 km (178 nm) WSW of Dagupan City
Distance 3: 415 km (223 nm) WNW of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 150 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Present Movement: WNW @ 11 kph
Towards: South China Sea
Size (in Diameter): 450 km (240 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 8 ft (2.4 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Fri Aug 27
TD 07W is expected to track WNW across the South China Sea and become a Tropical Storm tomorrow afternoon [2PM AUG 28: 15.7N 116.0E @ 65kph]. The system will begin to turn North to NNE-ward across the northern part of the South China Sea through Sunday [2PM AUG 29: 17.7N 116.1E @ 85kph]. On this track, 07W will not affect any part of the Philippines.
MONDAY AFTERNOON: 07W will intensify to 95 kph while moving NNE-ward [2PM AUG 30: 18.5N 116.4E @ 95kph].
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Still tracking NNE as it moves closer to Southern China [2PM AUG 31: 19.4N 116.7E @ 95kph].
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Weakening slightly and turning North, approaching the coast of Southern China [2PM SEP 01: 20.5N 116.9E @ 85kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
07W's circulation continues to consolidate while over the South China Sea and is not yet affecting any land areas at this time. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SOUTHWEST MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with on-&-off showers or rains can be expected along these following affected areas: WESTERN LUZON, MINDORO AND METROPOLITAN MANILA. Light to moderate SW winds (not in excess of 40 kph) can be expected. Meanwhile, ITCZ still oscillation in most parts of the Philippine Islands.
Tropical Depression 99W (1008 MB) passing close to Okinawa, located about 825 km NNE of Basco, Batanes (26.1N 127.2E)...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center...Almost stationary.
Tropical Disturbance 98W (LPA/1010 MB) organizing SW of Guam, located about 1,725 km East of Northern Mindanao (9.0N 142.0E)...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph near the center...moving WNW Slowly. The 48-hr. Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential for 98W is at 40%.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TD 07W (FLORITA)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0710.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
*RECENT ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS THAT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS TD 07W HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED. A
262218Z WINDSAT PASS AND A PARTIAL 270122Z ASCAT PASS INDICATE A
WELL DEFINED LLCC WITH 25 KNOT WINDS AT THE SYSTEM CENTER.
OBSERVATIONS WITHIN 75 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM SHOW WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AT 25 KNOTS AND PRESSURE AT 1005 MB. A 270234Z 37 GHZ
TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WITH WEAKER
BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS AS WELL AS DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 25
KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE
SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(<15 KNOTS), ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE, AND HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. TD 07W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED TO
THE SOUTH OF JAPAN. NEAR TAU 24, TD 06W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TURNING
POLEWARD AS A DEEPENING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TRACKS OVER EASTERN
CHINA. DUE TO THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLOW TO INITIALIZE THE SYSTEM, RESULTING IN POOR
MODEL AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT TO MODEL
CONSENSUS...(more)
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TD 07W (FLORITA)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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