for Monday, 23 August 2010 [1:06 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Mon August 23 2010):
New changes on the FORECAST OUTLOOK, adding EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK. Meanwhile, we are currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS MINDULLE (06W).
MINDULLE (06W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 kph
+ Vietnam (NCHMF/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM MINDULLE [06W/1005]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 003
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Mon 23 August 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #004/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
06W (UNNAMED) becomes a Tropical Storm, now internationally known as MINDULLE - a local Korean flower (Dandelion)...now tracking WNW towards the Gulf of Tonkin. Rain bands spreading across Central Vietnam and portions of Hainan Island.
Residents and visitors along Hainan Island, Central & Northern Vietnam and Southwestern China should closely monitor the progress of 06W (UNNAMED).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 4 days)*
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Mon Aug 23 2010
Location of Center: 16.2º N Lat 110.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 235 km (127 nm) East of Da Nang, Vietnam
Distance 2: 240 km (130 nm) SSE of Sanya, Hainan
Distance 3: 300 km (160 nm) ESE of Hue, Vietnam
Distance 4: 335 km (180 nm) South of Qionghai, Hainan
Distance 5: 775 km (420 nm) SW of Hong Kong
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 230 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Present Movement: WNW @ 20 kph (11 kts)
Towards: Hainan-Northern Vietnam Area
Size (in Diameter): 555 km (300 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 ft (3.9 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-4 feet [0-1.2 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Mon Aug 23
TS MINDULLE is expected to turn NW for the next 2 days and will gain more strength upon moving into the warm waters of the Gulf of Tonkin tonight until tomorrow. It will be passing near the SW coast of Hainan Island tomorrow morning and will start to slightly weaken tomorrow night [8AM AUG 24: 18.2N 108.3E @ 85kph...8PM AUG 24: 19.2N 107.2E @ 75kph]. On Wednesday morning, MINDULLE will start to turn WNW-ward [8AM AUG 25: 19.9N 106.3E @ 75kph] and make landfall along the coast of Northern Vietnam between 9 to 10 AM HK Time. It will then cross Northern Vietnam (to the south of Hanoi) through the afternoon and evening (Wednesday).
THURSDAY MORNING: Near the Vietnam-Laos Border, downgraded to a TD while moving West [8AM AUG 26: 20.1N 105.2E @ 55kph].
FRIDAY MORNING: Dissipating over Eastern Laos, downgraded to a Low Pressure Area (LPA) [8AM AUG 27: 20.0N 104.3E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
MINDULLE's circulation continues to become better organized, with rain-band convection now slowly moving into the northern portion. Strong rain bands now spreading across Central Vietnam, portions of Hainan Island and Eastern Vietnam. Strong to gale-force winds reaching 55 kph with higher gusts can be expected along its inner bands. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 150 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 230 mm (heavy) near the center of Mindulle. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.
CURRENT ITCZ INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread rains can be expected along the following affected areas: BICOL REGION & THE REST OF THE VISAYAS. Light South, SSW or SE winds (not in excess of 25 kph) can be expected along these areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TS MINDULLE (06W)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0610.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
*RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 222211Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
DEEP CONVECTION FORMING AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOOSELY
WRAPPED LLCC WITH THE MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION, WHICH
IS BASED ON THE SSMI IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW,
KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH DEEP
CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM,
THERE IS STILL AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC
CAUSING SUBSIDENCE AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY HINDERING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WHILE EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD...(more)
>> MINDULLE, meaning: A Korean name for Dandelion Flower. Name contributed by: DPR Korea.
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
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RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS MINDULLE (06W)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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