Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS DIANMU [ESTER]

for Thursday, 12 August 2010 [7:30 AM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu August 12 2010):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS DIANMU (ESTER).

DIANMU (ESTER) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 kph

TROPICAL STORM DIANMU [ESTER/05W/1004]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 015
7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Thu 12 August 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #016/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

DIANMU (ESTER) barely a tropical system while acceleraing NE-ward across the Sea of Japan...nears Extratropical Cyclone status.

*Residents and visitors along the smaller islets of the Sea of Japan, Northern Honshus and Hokkaido hould closely monitor the progress of DIANMU (ESTER).

*Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

Current Storm Information

Time/Date: 7:00 AM PhT Thu Aug 12 2010
Location of Center: 38.4º N Lat 135.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 345 km (187 nm) WNW of Niigata, Japan
Distance 2: 495 km (267 nm) West of Sendai, Japan
Distance 3: 510 km (275 nm) NE of Hiroshima, Japan
Distance 4: 725 km (390 nm) SW of Sapporo, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 50 mm [Moderate]
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Present Movement: NE @ 35 kph (19 kts)
Towards: Sea of Japan-Northernmost Honshu
Size (in Diameter): 590 km (320 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-4 feet [0-1.2 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Thu Aug 12

+ Forecast Outlook: DIANMU is expected to reach Extratropical status within 12 to 24 hours & cross the northernmost part of Honshu Island tonight [2PM AUG 12: 39.7N 138.7E @ 55kph] and will be over the Northwest Pacific Ocean early tomorrow [2AM AUG 13: 42.1N 144.6E @ 55kph]. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects & Hazards: DIANMU's circulation has become decoupled, with its rain convection ahead of its low-level center - a sign that the system is almost Extratropical. Its outer bands spreading across northern Honshu and Hokkaido. Strong to Gale force winds of up to 75 kph with higher gusts can be expected within the southern & eastern quadrants of the inner bands. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 25 mm (light rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 75 mm (moderate) situated along the Northern, Eastern and Southern periphery of DIANMU's center. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

External Links for TS DIANMU (ESTER)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0510.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 24 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02

JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) THU 12 AUGUST POSITION: 37.8N 133.9E.
*ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER HAS WEAKENED AND THAT THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE BAROCLINIC
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION, WHICH IS BASED
ON A WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IN ANIMATED IR IMAGERY. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND
RJTD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN
AREA OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
TD 05W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD. BY TAU 12
TD DIANMU IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT BECOMES
COMPLETELY ABSORBED BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. NUMERICAL MODEL GUI-
DANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE
MODEL CONSENSUS...(more)

>> DIANMU, meaning: Mother of lightning. Name contributed by: China.
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RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):

> Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

* - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS DIANMU (ESTER)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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