for Monday, 30 August 2010 [6:45 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun August 29 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web & e-mail advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS LIONROCK (FLORITA).
LIONROCK (FLORITA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Vietnam (NCHMF/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 100 kph
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM LIONROCK [FLORITA/07W/1006]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 011
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Mon 30 August 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #13/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
LIONROCK (FLORITA) barely moving as it picks up a little bit of strength while over the South China Sea...interacts with the newly-formed TD 09W (UNNAMED).
Residents and visitors along Southern China particularly Guangdong Province including Hong Kong should closely monitor the progress of LIONROCK.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 days)*
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Mon Aug 30 2010
Location of Center: 20.9º N Lat 116.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 280 km (150 nm) South of Shantou, China
Distance 2: 320 km (173 nm) ESE of Hong Kong
Distance 3: 530 km (285 nm) WNW of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Present Movement: S @ 01 kph (0.5 kt)
Towards: Eastern Guangdong
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 240 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 405 km (220 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft (4.5 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Mon Aug 30
TS LIONROCK is expected to track NE for the first 12 hours, before turning northward...becoming a strong tropical storm tomorrow afternoon [2PM AUG 31: 21.8N 117.8E @ 100kph]. The storm will be moving closer towards the southern coast of Eastern Guangdong on Wednesday afternoon [2PM SEP 01: 23.3N 117.9E @ 85kph]. On this forecast track, LIONROCK will make landfall over Eastern Guangdong Wednesday evening.
Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 85 km/hr (45 kts) with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 95 kilometers (50 nautical miles) from the center.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Just a remnant low pressure...dissipating over the mountainous terrain of Guangdong Province [2PM SEP 02: 24.7N 116.4E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
LIONROCK's circulation continues to rotate along the northern portion of the South China Sea...Northern outer-most rainbands continues to linger along the southern shores of Eastern Guangdong. If the forecast track goes well, Tropical Storm Force Winds are expected to reach Southeastern Guangdong by Wednesday afternoon (Sep 01). Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 240 mm (heavy) near the center of LIONROCK. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SOUTHWEST MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing on-&-off showers, rains & thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: WESTERN LUZON (ILOCOS REGION DOWN TO ZAMBALES) AND BATANES-CALAYAN-BABUYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS. Light to moderate SW winds (not in excess of 35 kph) can be expected.
Tropical Disturbance 92W (LPA/1007 MB) is now TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W. A separate page on this newly-formed system will be available on this website soon.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TS LIONROCK (FLORITA)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0710.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 72 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY DEEPENED. THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE IN A DIRECT CY-
CLONE INTERACTION (DCI) WITH TD 09W TO THE NORTHEAST, ACCOUNTING FOR
THE POLEWARD STORM MOTION, CONTRARY TO THE SYNOPTIC STEERING FLOW.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE ANIMATION AND
RADAR FIXES FROM HONG KONG. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY
TINUE DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD DUE TO DCI OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS BEFORE IT TURNS NORTHWESTWARD AS IT GETS RELEASED FROM THE
DCI AND A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER EASTERN CHINA ASSUMES
STEERING. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT
DUE TO VARIABLE HANDLING OF THE DCI...(more)
>> LIONROCK, meaning: A famous peak in Hong Kong, overlooking Kowloon Bay. Name contributed by: Hong Kong.
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS LIONROCK (FLORITA)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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