Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS DIANMU [ESTER] to make landfall over South Korea around midnight... [Update #11]

for Tuesday, 10 August 2010 [6:25 PM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tue August 10 2010):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisiories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS DIANMU (ESTER).

DIANMU (ESTER) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 105 kph

TROPICAL STORM DIANMU [ESTER/05W/1004]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 011
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Tue 10 August 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #010/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

Tropical Storm DIANMU (ESTER) weakens slightly as it approaches the Korean Resort Island of Cheju...gale to tropical storm force winds lashing the area. Landfall expected along the SW Coast of South Korea late tonight or just after midnight.

*Residents and visitors along North & South Korea including Cheju Island should closely monitor the progress of DIANMU (ESTER).

*Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

Current Storm Information

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Tue Aug 10 2010
Location of Center: 32.8º N Lat 125.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 135 km (73 nm) WSW of Cheju Is., S.Korea
Distance 2: 405 km (220 nm) West of Sasebo, Japan
Distance 3: 415 km (225 nm) ENE of Shanghai, China
Distance 4: 425 km (230 nm) WSW of Busan, S.Korea
Distance 5: 555 km (300 nm) SSW of Seoul
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (65 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 110 mm [Moderate]
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Present Movement: North @ 22 kph (12 kts)
Towards: Cheju-South Korea Area
Size (in Diameter): 685 km (370 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 16 ft (4.8 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-4 feet [0-1.2 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Tue Aug 10

+ Forecast Outlook: DIANMU is expected to start turning NE-ward within the next 06 to 12 hours...and will pass to the west of the South Korean Resort island of Cheju late tonight, and make landfall over South Korea via the SW Coast early tomorrow morning [2AM AUG 11: 34.4N 126.5E @ 100kph]. It will traverse South Korea's southern portion, and will pass over or very close to Taegu City tomorrow afternoon as it starts to weaken [2PM AUG 11: 36.2N 128.8E @ 85kph]. DIANMU will move out into the Sea of Japan tomorrow night and will transform into an Extratropical Cyclone (ET) early Thursday morning [2AM AUG 12: 37.8N 132.3E @ 65kph]. The 2 to 3-Day Medium-Range Forecast Track shows the system accelerating ENE-ward across the Sea of Japan, as an ET on Thursday afternoon [2PM AUG 12: 39.2N 137.0E @ 55kph] and shall cross the northernmost portion of Honshu in Japan by Thursday evening and into the Pacific Ocean on Friday [2PM AUG 13: 42.2N 150.7E @ 55kph]. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects & Hazards: DIANMU's inner bands now moving into Cheju Island and the Southern and SW Coast of South Korea...its outer bands now spreading across the whole of Korean Peninsula and Western Japan (Kyushu). Gale to Tropical Storm Force Winds within the inner bands of this system are located mainly along the NE, Eastern, SE and Southern quadrants. Strong winds of 65 to 95 kph with higher gusts can be expected along these quadrants. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 50 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 110 mm (moderate) near the center of DIANMU. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: WEAK >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with passing light rains can be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST LUZON including BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS, LUBANG ISLAND, WESTERN PALAWAN & CALAMIAN GROUP OF ISLANDS. Light to moderate SW winds (not in excess of 40 kph) can be expected along these areas. Large ocean waves of 6 to 7 feet along the beach-front areas of the affected areas are likely to occur today. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

External Links for TS DIANMU (ESTER)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0510.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 72 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02

JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) TUE 10 AUGUST POSITION: 32.3N 125.3E.
*ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
LOOSELY INTO THE CENTER. HOWEVER, A 100524Z AMSR-E 36V IMAGE DEPICTS
TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLCC. THIS IMAGE
SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT IN-
TENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45
TO 55 KNOTS. TS 05W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD SOUTHERN SOUTH KOREA AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES
LAND. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) BY TAU 24 AND WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE EAST SEA AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTER-
LIES. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS AS THE AVAILABLE
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT. TS 05W IS FORECAST TO
COMPLETE ETT NEAR TAU 48, PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN
HONSHU...(more)

>> DIANMU, meaning: Mother of lightning. Name contributed by: China.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):

> Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

* - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS DIANMU (ESTER)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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