for Tuesday, 24 August 2010 [6:13 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tue August 24 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS MINDULLE (06W).
MINDULLE (06W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 90 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 105 kph
+ Vietnam (NCHMF/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM MINDULLE [06W/1005]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 007
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Tue 24 August 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #009/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
MINDULLE (06W) has just made landfall along the Southeastern Coast of Northern Vietnam...downgraded to a strong Tropical Storm. Stormy weather conditions to continue across Northern Vietnam throughout the night.
Residents and visitors along Northern Vietnam and Laos should closely monitor the progress of MINDULLE (06W).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 24 hours)*
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Tue Aug 24 2010
Location of Center: 19.0º N Lat 105.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 225 km (122 nm) South of Hanoi, Vietnam
Distance 2: 315 km (170 nm) West of Dongfang, Hainan
Distance 3: 345 km (187 nm) NW of Hue, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 105 kph (58 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 135 kph (73 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 200 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 980 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Present Movement: WNW @ 20 kph (11 kts)
Towards: Northern Vietnam
Size (in Diameter): 500 km (270 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 ft (3.9 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-4 feet [0-1.2 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Tue Aug 24
TS MINDULLE is expected to maintain its WNW track throughout the forecast period and will dissipate over Laos tomorrow afternoon. The Central Dense Overcast (CDO) will cross the mountainous terrain of Northern Vietnam, south of Hanoi, throughout the evening...rapidly weakening into a minimal tropical storm early tomorrow morning [2AM AUG 25: 19.6N 104.8E @ 65kph]. Complete dissipation of MINDULLE is forecast around tomorrow afternoon, while moving across Laos [2PM AUG 25: 20.0N 103.9E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
MINDULLE's circulation has begun to deteriorate as its eye started to fill-in, due to land interaction. The center has started to make landfall over the southern part of Northern Vietnam. Tropical Storm force winds reaching 100 kph with higher gusts, accompanied with moderate to heavy rains can be expected along its inner bands, especially near the center of the storm. Meanwhile, its outer bands (w/ light to moderate rains & winds of up to 65 kph) continues to spread across the whole of Northern Vietnam, and portions of Laos and Hainan Island. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 200 mm (heavy) just to the South & SSW of Mindulle's center or along the southern coast of Northern Vietnam. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH
Tropical Disturbance 96W (LPA/1008 MB) slowly consolidating over the Philippine Sea, about 840 km ENE of Bicol Region (14.6N 132.0E)...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 25 kph near the center...moving West slowly. This system has a 40% chance of becoming a Tropical Cyclone w/in the next 24 to 48 hours.
CURRENT ITCZ INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread afternoon or evening rains & thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: MOST PARTS OF THE PHILIPPINES. Light South, SSW or SE winds (not in excess of 30 kph) can be expected along these areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TS MINDULLE (06W)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0610.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 24 hrs Ahead
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
*ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CONVECTIVE TOPS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO WARM UP INDICATING WEAKENING
AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH VIETNAM'S LANDMASS. THE CURRENT POSITION
IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A 240532Z 1-KM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING A 15-NM EYE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD RANGING FROM 50 TO 60 KNOTS. TS
06W WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER SOUTHEAST
CHINA. MINDULLE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT MAKES LANDFALL BY
06 HRS, THEN DISSIPATE BY 24 HRS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...(more)
>> MINDULLE, meaning: A Korean name for Dandelion Flower. Name contributed by: DPR Korea.
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS MINDULLE (06W)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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