for Wednesday, 11 August 2010 [7:37 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed August 11 2010):
Tropical Wave (Remnants of LPA 99W) bringing scattered to widespread rains across Bicol Region and the whole of Visayas. Meanwhile, we are currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS DIANMU (ESTER).
DIANMU (ESTER) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 90 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 kph
TROPICAL STORM DIANMU [ESTER/05W/1004]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 012
7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Wed 11 August 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #012/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
*Residents and visitors along North & South Korea including Cheju Island should closely monitor the progress of DIANMU (ESTER).
*Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
Current Storm Information + Forecast Outlook: DIANMU is expected to continue moving NE to ENE-ward within the next 06 to 12 hours...and will just pass over the Southern and SE Coastlines of South Korea today. Its center is expected to pass over or very close to Busan City this afternoon [2PM AUG 11: 35.4N 128.4E @ 75kph]...and will move into the Sea of Japan tonight. DIANMU will start transforming into an Extratropical Cyclone (ET) tomorrow [2AM AUG 12: 37.0N 131.5E @ 65kph...2PM AUG 12: 38.6N 136.3E @ 65kph]. The 2 to 3-Day Medium-Range Forecast Track shows the system accelerating ENE-ward across Northern Honshu and into the NW Pacific Ocean, as it becomes ET by Friday through Saturday [2AM AUG 13: 40.4N 143.3E @ 55kph...2AM AUG 14: 42.5N 159.2E @ 45kph]. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.
Time/Date: 7:00 AM PhT Wed Aug 11 2010
Location of Center: 34.5º N Lat 127.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 140 km (75 nm) NE of Cheju Is., S.Korea
Distance 2: 160 km (85 nm) ESE of Busan, S.Korea
Distance 3: 240 km (130 nm) NW of Sasebo, Japan
Distance 4: 345 km (185 nm) South of Seoul
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 100 mm [Moderate]
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Present Movement: NE @ 20 kph (11 kts)
Towards: Taegu-Busan Area
Size (in Diameter): 650 km (350 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 ft (4.2 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-4 feet [0-1.2 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Wed Aug 11
+ Effects & Hazards: DIANMU's inner bands remains over Cheju Island and spreading across the Southern half of South Korea...its outer bands affecting the whole of Korean Peninsula and Western Japan (Kyushu). Gale to Tropical Storm Force Winds within the inner bands of this system are located mainly along the Eastern, SE and Southern quadrants. Strong winds of 65 to 100 kph with higher gusts can be expected along these quadrants. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 40 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 100 mm (moderate) near the center of DIANMU. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
External Links for TS DIANMU (ESTER)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0510.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 72 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
*ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS BECOME ASYMMETRICAL WITH THE MAIN CONVECTION ELONGATED TO
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AS IT BEGAN TO ENCOUNTER STRONG WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY FROM KUNSAN AIR BASE,
SOUTH KOREA, AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE
OF T3.O FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND FROM THE SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM
CHEJU-DO AIRPORT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 05W HAS ROUNDED
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE AND BEGUN TO
GET ABSORBED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. DIANMU IS EXPECTED TO
BRUSH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE KOREAN PENINSULA AND EMERGE IN THE SEA
OF JAPAN AS A WEAKENED TROPICAL STORM BY TAU 24. IT WILL THEN
TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL (XT) CYCLONE, BECOMING FULL XT BY
TAU 48 AFTER IT CROSSES NORTHERN HONSHU INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE ARE IN SOLID AGREEMENT WITH GFS AS THE
SOLE OUTLIER TO THE LEFT OF THE ENVELOPE AFTER TAU 36. THIS TRACK
FORECAST IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 36 TO COMPENSATE
FOR GFS'S UNLIKELY DEFLECTION TO THE LEFT...(more)
>> DIANMU, meaning: Mother of lightning. Name contributed by: China.
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS DIANMU (ESTER)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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