Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS DIANMU [ESTER]

for Tuesday, 10 August 2010 [12:43 PM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tue August 10 2010):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisiories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS DIANMU (ESTER).

DIANMU (ESTER) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 105 kph

TROPICAL STORM DIANMU [ESTER/05W/1004]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 010
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Tue 10 August 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #009/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

DIANMU (ESTER) still gaining strength, now at 100 km/hr...inner bands approaching Cheju Island. South Korea's weather to deteriorate later today.

*Residents and visitors along Eastern China, North & South Korea including Cheju Island should closely monitor the progress of DIANMU (ESTER).

*Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

Current Storm Information

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Tue Aug 10 2010
Location of Center: 31.6º N Lat 125.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 245 km (133 nm) SW of Cheju Is., S.Korea
Distance 2: 370 km (200 nm) ENE of Shanghai, China
Distance 3: 535 km (290 nm) SW of Busan, S.Korea
Distance 4: 625 km (337 nm) NNW of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 5: 685 km (370 nm) SSW of Seoul
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 75 mm [Moderate]
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Present Movement: North @ 24 kph (13 kts)
Towards: Cheju-South Korea Area
Size (in Diameter): 705 km (380 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 ft (5.4 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-4 feet [0-1.2 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Tue Aug 10

+ Forecast Outlook: DIANMU is expected to start turning NE-ward within the next 06 to 12 hours...and will pass to the west of the South Korean Resort island of Cheju tonight [8PM AUG 11: 33.3N 125.6E @ 100kph], and make landfall over South Korea via the SW Coast early tomorrow morning. DIANMU will traverse South Korea's southern portion, and will pass very close to Taegu City tomorrow afternoon [8AM AUG 11: 35.3N 127.3E @ 95kph], before moving out into the Sea of Japan tomorrow evening [8PM AUG 11: 37.0N 130.2E @ 75kph]. The 2 to 3-Day Medium-Range Forecast Track shows the system moving across the Sea of Japan in an ENE direction by Thursday morning [8AM AUG 12: 38.5N 134.4E @ 65kph]. Upon moving across the Sea of Japan, DIANMU will become an Extratropical Cyclone (ET) on Friday morning [8AM AUG 13: 40.9N 145.0E @ 45kph] after crossing the northernmost portion of Honshu in Japan. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects & Hazards: DIANMU's large circulation continues to cover the whole stretch of the East China Sea...its outer bands continues to spread across South Korea...inner bands with 65 km/hr winds or more expected to reach Cheju Island later this afternoon. Intense rain and wind convection within the inner bands of this system are located mostly along the SE and Eastern quadrants. Strong winds of 65 kph with higher gusts can be expected along these quadrants. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 45 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 75 mm (moderate) near the center of DIANMU. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: WEAK >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with passing light rains can be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST LUZON including BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS, LUBANG ISLAND & CALAMIAN GROUP OF ISLANDS. Light to moderate SW winds (not in excess of 40 kph) can be expected along these areas. Large ocean waves of 6 to 7 feet along the beach-front areas of the affected areas are likely to occur today. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

The weak & small Tropical Disturbance 99W (LPA/1010 MB) continues to track NW across the Philippine Sea. Located near lat 10.5N lon 131.0E...or about 625 km ESE of Borongan, Eastern Samar...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 25 kph near the center. This system has a 40% chance of becoming a Tropical Cyclone w/in the next 24 to 48 hours.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

External Links for TS DIANMU (ESTER)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0510.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 72 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02

JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) TUE 10 AUGUST POSITION: 31.1N 125.1E.
*THE TS HAS INTENSIFIED A MODEST 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEEN SEVERELY LIMITED WITHIN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE
DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED NEAR SHANGHAI, CHINA. THIS LACK
OF CONVECTION HAS KEPT DVORAK ESTIMATES LOW DESPITE A STRONG AND
WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A
092243Z AMSUB MICROWAVE IMAGE. IN FACT, THERE IS SO LITTLE CONVECTION
WITHIN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE THAT THE LLCC HAS BECOME PARTLY EXPOSED.
THE OUTER RAIN BANDS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO AFFECT CHEJU AND SOUTHERN
JAPAN. MORE RECENTLY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW HAVE RISEN
FROM A 3.0 TO A 3.5 OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, AND RJTD HAS INCREASED FROM
2.5 TO A 3.0 AS WELL. THIS INCREASE IS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO SLIGHTLY
IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND A
SUBTLE WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST...(more)

>> DIANMU, meaning: Mother of lightning. Name contributed by: China.
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RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):

> Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

* - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS DIANMU (ESTER)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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