for Monday, 23 August 2010 [7:01 AM PhT]
<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest SMS Storm Alerts!
For more details: Text T2K HELP to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
powered by: Synermaxx
Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Mon August 23 2010):
New changes on the FORECAST OUTLOOK, adding EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK. Meanwhile, we are currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TD 06W (UNNAMED).
06W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Vietnam (NCHMF/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 002
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Mon 23 August 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #003/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Tropical Depression 06W (UNNAMED) getting more organized as it moves closer to Hainan Island and Northern Vietnam...its rain bands now affecting the coastal areas of Eastern Vietnam.
Residents and visitors along Hainan Island, Vietnam and Southern China should closely monitor the progress of 06W (UNNAMED).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Mon Aug 23 2010
Location of Center: 16.0º N Lat 111.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 330 km (178 nm) SE of Sanya, Hainan
Distance 2: 365 km (197 nm) East of Da Nang, Vietnam
Distance 3: 375 km (203 nm) SSE of Qionghai, Hainan
Distance 4: 430 km (230 nm) ESE of Hue, Vietnam
Distance 5: 740 km (400 nm) SSW of Hong Kong
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 220 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Present Movement: West @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Towards: Hainan-Northern Vietnam Area
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Mon Aug 23
FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)*
TD 06W is expected to turn WNW for the next 12 to 24 hours and reach tropical storm strength this afternoon [2PM AUG 23: 16.5N 110.5E @ 75kph]. It will be passing near the SW coast of Hainan Island by tomorrow morning as a strong tropical storm [2AM AUG 24: 17.6N 109.2E @ 85kph...2PM AUG 24: 18.7N 107.9E @ 85kph]. By early Wednesday morning, 06W will weaken slightly as it turns WNW-ward while over the Gulf of Tonkin [2AM AUG 25: 19.4N 106.8E @ 75kph] and will make landfall over Northern Vietnam by Wednesday evening.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Over Northern Vietnam (to the South of Hanoi), turns WSW-ward, weakens further [2AM AUG 26: 19.9N 105.4E @ 65kph].
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Along Vietnam-Laos Border, downgraded to TD [2AM AUG 27: 19.7N 104.0E @ 45kph].
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Dissipated over Laos [2AM AUG 28: 19.3N 102.7E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
06W's circulation has become better organized with rain-band convection developing to the east of its center, and slowly expanding into the northern portion. Strong rain bands remain near the coast of Central Vietnam (east of Da Nang City), with some patches affecting Eastern Vietnam. Moderate to strong winds of up to 55 kph with higher gusts can be expected within the southern, eastern & northern quadrants of its rain bands. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 220 mm (heavy) situated along Southern periphery of 06W's center. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.
CURRENT ITCZ INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread rains can be expected along the following affected areas: BICOL REGION & THE REST OF THE VISAYAS. Light South, SSW or SE winds (not in excess of 25 kph) can be expected along these areas. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TD 06W (UNNAMED)
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0610.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
*RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 221757Z
AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW THE DEEP CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO WRAP
AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS
IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
AMSRE IMAGE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 25 TO 35 KNOTS, A 221411Z ASCAT PASS
INDICATING 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS, AND 16 KNOT WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM
XISHA DAO, 55 NM TO THE NORTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PREVIOUSLY ABOVE TD 06W HAS WEAKENED, ALLOWING FOR
DECREASED SUBSIDENCE IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC AND
ENABLING THE DEEP CONVECTION TO BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY. TD 06W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO TURN WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AS THE RIDGE BECOMES SLIGHTLY WEAKENED AND REORIENTS.
TD 06W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG WATER WITH HIGH OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT AND IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. IT SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AFTER TAU 36 AS IT
TRACKS CLOSE TO HAINAN, WHICH COULD IMPEDE SOME INFLOW. AFTER TAU
48, TD 06W IS EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHERN VIETNAM, WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN, AND DISSIPATE AS A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 120. THE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR GFS WHICH TURNS THE SYSTEM
FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST BECAUSE IT ANALYZES THE STEERING RIDGE TO
WEAKEN MORE. THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...(more)
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TD 06W...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
Copyright © 2010 Typhoon2000.com All Rights Reserved
No comments:
Post a Comment