Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD 96W [ESTER]

for Sunday, 08 August 2010 [6:59 AM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sat August 07 2010):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web advisiories (except 12 AM PhT) on TD 96W (ESTER).

96W (ESTER) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 35 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96W [ESTER]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 003
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sun 08 August 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

Tropical Depression 96W (ESTER) drfting poleward...threatens Yaeyama, Okinawa & Ryukyu Islands. Monsoon rains (aka. "Habagat") continuing across Luzon & Western Visayas including Palawan & Metro Manila.

*Residents and visitors along Taiwan, Ryukyu-Yaeyama Islands, & Calayan-Babuyan-Batanes Islands should closely monitor the progress of 96W (ESTER).

*Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

Current Storm Information

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Sun Aug 08 2010
Location of Center: 21.6º N Lat 124.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 295 km (160 nm) ENE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 2: 405 km (220 nm) SE of Hualien, Taiwan
Distance 3: 465 km (250 nm) NNE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 4: 485 km (262 nm) SE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 5: 645 km (348 nm) SW of Okinawa, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 200 mm [Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Present Movement: Quasi-Stationary
Towards: Yaeyama-Ryukyu Islands
Size (in Diameter): 400 km (215 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 8 ft (2.4 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
T2K TrackMap #003 (for Public): 6 AM PhT Sun Aug 08

+ Forecast Outlook: 96W is expected to turn more to the NNE for the next 6 to 24 hours and accelerate slightly in the direction of Yaeyama-Okinawa-Ryukyu Area. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects & Hazards: 96W's circulation is currently over the Northern Philippine Sea and continues to pull the Southwest Monsoon across the Philippines. Its outer bands continues to affect the Extreme Northern Islands of Luzon - moderate to strong winds of up to 45 kph w/ occasional rains can be expected along Calayan Islands, Balintang Channel, Batanes & Babuyan Group of Islands. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing moderate to heavy rains can be expected along the following affected areas: NORTHERN-CENTRAL-WESTERN LUZON, METRO MANILA, PALAWAN, CALAMIAN GROUP, MINDORO, WESTERN VISAYAS, MASBATE & WESTERN BICOL. Light to moderate SW winds (not in excess of 55 kph) can be expected along these areas. Large ocean waves of 7 to 8 feet along the beach-front areas of the affected areas are likely to occur today. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

Weak Tropical Disturbance 98W (LPA/1003 MB) almost stationary over the South China Sea, close to Hainan Island. Located near lat 18.0N lon 112.0E...or about 910 km West of Laoag City...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 25 kph near the center. This system has a 30% chance of becoming a Tropical Cyclone w/in the next 24 to 48 hours.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS, CALAYAN ISLAND, CAGAYAN, AND BABUYAN ISLANDS.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.

External Links for TD 96W (ESTER)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time

JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists):
*N/A...(more)
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RECENT TYPHOON2000 TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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NOTE:

* - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TD 96W (ESTER)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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