for Saturday, 28 August 2010 [3:30 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri August 27 2010):
Now issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TD 07W (FLORITA).
07W (FLORITA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Vietnam (NCHMF/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 55 kph
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W [FLORITA]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 004
3:00 PM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sat 28 August 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #04/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Tropical Depression 07W (FLORITA) exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...accelerating NNW towards the Southern Coast of China.
Residents and visitors along Southern China particularly Guangdong Province should closely monitor the progress of 07W (FLORITA).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
Time/Date: 3:00 PM PhT Sat Aug 28 2010
Location of Center: 18.4º N Lat 117.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 360 km (195 nm) West of Laoag City
Distance 2: 520 km (282 nm) SE of Hong Kong
Distance 3: 555 km (300 nm) South of Shantou, China
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 60 mm (Moderate)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Present Movement: NNW @ 19 kph
Towards: Southern China
Size (in Diameter): 350 km (190 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 8 ft (2.4 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Sat Aug 28
TD 07W is expected to continue tracking NNW across the northern part of the South China Sea and become a Tropical Storm tomorrow morning [8AM AUG 29: 20.0N 117.3E @ 65kph]. It will continue moving NNW at a much slower pace as it intensifies while approaching the coast of Southern China on Monday morning [8AM AUG 30: 22.1N 116.8E @ 85kph]. On this track, 07W will be affecting the coast of Eastern Guangdong in Southern China.
TUESDAY MORNING: Intensifying to its peak strength (100 kph) as it makes landfall over Eastern Guangdong [8AM AUG 31: 23.0N 116.3E @ 100kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Dissipating overland while traversing Eastern Guangdong [8AM SEP 01: 23.8N 115.8E @ 75kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Dissipated as a Low Pressure Area while over the mountains of Eastern Guangdong [8AM SEP 02: 24.6N 115.0E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
07W's circulation gets back in form while over the northern part of the South China Se...not yet affecting any land areas at this time. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 25 mm (light rain) can be expected along the its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 60 mm (Moderate) near the center of 07W. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SOUTHWEST MONSOON INTENSITY: WEAK >> Sunny to mostly cloudy skies with possible showers or rains can be expected along these following affected areas: SOME PARTS OF WESTERN LUZON & WESTERN VISAYAS. Light to moderate SW winds (not in excess of 35 kph) can be expected. Meanwhile, ITCZ affecting most parts Mindanao.
Tropical Disturbance 98W (LPA/1010 MB) accelerated now to the NW of Guam, located about 1,820 km East of Northern Luzon (16.8N 139.7E)...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 25 kph near the center...moving NNW @ 26 kph. The 48-hr. Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential for 98W is now at 50% (Moderate Chance).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TD 07W (FLORITA)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0710.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
*ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. A MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES SLIGHTLY IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
FROM THE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND 12-HOUR MOTION BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 25 TO
30 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES AS WELL AS RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS DIRECTLY
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TD 07W (FLORITA)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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