Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS DIANMU [ESTER] intensifying rapidly...heads for South Korea (Update #08)

for Monday, 09 August 2010 [6:25 PM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Mon August 09 2010):

New Tropical Disturbance 99W (LPA) approaching the area of Palau Island...will be closely monitored for further developments - details below. Currently issuing 6-hrly advisiories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS DIANMU (ESTER).

DIANMU (ESTER) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 105 kph

TROPICAL STORM DIANMU [ESTER/05W/1004]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 008
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Mon 09 August 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #006/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

DIANMU (ESTER) spins up to 95 km/hr...accelerating northward across the East China Sea...now a big threat to South Korea & Cheju Island.

*Residents and visitors along Eastern china, Western Japan, North & South Korea including Cheju Island should closely monitor the progress of DIANMU (ESTER).

*Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

Current Storm Information

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Mon Aug 09 2010
Location of Center: 28.3º N Lat 125.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 320 km (173 nm) NW of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 430 km (232 nm) NNE of Ishigaki, Japan
Distance 3: 510 km (275 nm) SE of Shanghai, China
Distance 4: 590 km (318 nm) SSW of Cheju Is., S.Korea
Distance 5: 945 km (510 nm) NNE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (65 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 200 mm [Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Present Movement: North @ 28 kph (15 kts)
Towards: Cheju-South Korea Area
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) / Avg/Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft (4.5 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-4 feet [0-1.2 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Mon Aug 09

+ Forecast Outlook: DIANMU is expected to continue tracking Northward and intensify within the next 24 hours, reaching peak strength of near typhoon intensity (100-110 kph). It will approach the South Korean Resort island of Cheju by early Wednesday morning, passing just west of the island [2AM AUG 11: 33.2N 125.6E @ 100kph]. The 2 to 3-Day Medium-Range Forecast Track shows the system making landfall off the Southwestern Coast of South Korea before noon Wednesday [2PM AUG 11: 34.9N 127.0E @ 85kph], and will traverse South Korea through Wednesday evening - passing very close to Taegu City. DIANMU will enter the Sea of Japan by Thursday morning. Upon moving across the Sea of Japan, ENE-ward, DIANMU will become an Extratropical Cyclone (ET) on Thursday afternoon [2PM AUG 12: 38.2N 132.9E @ 65kph]. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects & Hazards: DIANMU's circulation is now over the East China Sea, with only its outer bands affecting Yaeyama and Okinawa-Ryukyu Island Chains. Intense rain and wind convection still remains to the South & Eastern quadrants of the tropical storm. Strong winds of up to 85 kph-gust can be expected along these island chains. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 200 mm (heavy) situated south of DIANMU's center. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing light to moderate to sometimes heavy rains can be expected along the following affected areas: NORTHWESTERN LUZON including portions of BATANES, PANGASINAN, LUBANG ISLAND & CALAMIAN GROUP OF ISLANDS, WESTERN PANAY, & PALAWAN. Moderate to strong SW winds (not in excess of 50 kph) can be expected along these areas. Large ocean waves of 7 to 8 feet along the beach-front areas of the affected areas are likely to occur today. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

Tropical Disturbance 99W (LPA/1010 MB) remains weak to the North of Palau Island, as it tracks WNW @ 19 kph. Located near lat 9.0N lon 135.2E...or about 990 km East of Northern Mindanao, Philippines...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 25 kph near the center. This system has a 30% chance of becoming a Tropical Cyclone w/in the next 24 to 48 hours.

Yet another, developing Tropical Disturbance 90W (LPA/1010 MB) was detected to the NW of Wake Island or just to the north of Marcus Island...tracking WNW @ 19 kph across the open seas of the Western Pacific. It was located near lat 26.5N lon 155.6E...or about 1,350 km East of Chichijima...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph near the center. This system has a 40% chance of becoming a Tropical Cyclone w/in the next 24 to 48 hours.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

External Links for TS DIANMU (ESTER)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0510.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 72 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02

JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) MON 09 AUGUST POSITION: 26.9N 125.6E.
*ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FURTHER AROUND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND A 090439Z
AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL BANDING EYE. INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED
JUST NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC, ALLOWING FOR THE INCREASED CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION AND IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS 05W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE EAST OF JAPAN AND WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 48. TS 05W IS EXPECTED TO
FURTHER INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO THE RAPIDLY
IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. BY TAU 48, TS DIANMU SHOULD
REACH SOUTH KOREA AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINC ZONE. BY
TAU 72, TS 05W IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION FULLY INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
SYSTEM AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT, THOUGH THE
UKMO AND GFDN MODELS TRACK THE SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH BEFORE TURNING
EASTWARD. THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AS WELL AS PREVIOUS JTWC FORECASTS...(more)

>> DIANMU, meaning: Mother of lightning. Name contributed by: China.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):

> Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

* - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS DIANMU (ESTER)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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